It appears that crude oil prices stabilized after that sharp drop at the start of September. Then energy was able to recover close to $42 but the move is not that strong, rather slower and choppier; very undecided direction due to increase of corona-virus cases and potential second lock-down. However, I don’t think we will see the repeat of a March and April decline, since I doubt we will see the same hard 2nd lockdown, especially not in the US under the Trump administration. But the fear remains in eyes of investors so a new dip may not be a surprise before real price stabilization occurs.
From an Elliott Wave perspective, I see a nice ongoing corrective drop from the $44 area that will ideally unfold as an A-B-C correction. In zigzag, you will typically see price retracement back to the area of a former wave four, which in our case was near $34.64. The next support I would keep an eye on is around $30.00, which is a psychological level that comes in around 38.2% Fib. retracement compared to the previous five-wave rise. Regarding timing for this wave 2)/B), it may finish as we approach the year-end.
If I am on the right track then I think there can be a nice opportunity on the long side in 2021, after that dip. But if it goes straight up from here, then it’s better to wait and see if bulls are going to be early or is something else going on for a complex wave 2)/B).
Share
