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USD/JPY Price Struggling to Gain Above 115.50 as Yields Drop

  • As the dollar strengthened, the USD/JPY reversed a weekly bearish gap to open higher.
  • The Russian-Ukrainian crisis has helped the US dollar’s status as the world’s reserve currency.
  • Bond yields dropped sharply in the US, limiting further gains for the dollar and the pair.

Since the Asian session low, the USD/JPY price has struggled to benefit from the strong intraday rebound and was the last trading around mid-115.00s.

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On the first day of the new week, the pair opened with a bearish gap, despite some buying on the decline in the 115.20-115.15 range on broader US dollar strength. During the recent deterioration in the Ukrainian situation, the dollar’s status as a global reserve currency was strengthened.

Russia has been sanctioned by western countries for its invasion of Ukraine, including blocking some banks’ access to the international payment system SWIFT. – East-West conflict broke out.

Falling US Treasury yields, however, have been a headwind for the dollar and have slowed any significant USD/JPY appreciation, at least for the time being. Moreover, recent geopolitical developments have investors convinced that the Fed will adopt less aggressive anti-inflation policies.

In conjunction with a global flight to safety, this led to a sharp drop in US bond yields. Since Friday’s high, around 115.75, USD/JPY has been below. However, before traders prepare for further upside, they should wait for strong follow-on buying.

The upcoming headlines regarding the Russian-Ukrainian saga will affect market risk sentiment in the absence of any major economic news. The US bond yields will also stimulate US dollar demand and boost USD/JPY, allowing traders to take advantage of a few opportunities.

USD/JPY price technical analysis: Bulls running out of steam

usd/jpy price

The USD/JPY price consolidates above the 20-period SMA on the 4-hour chart. The price remains neutral around the 115.50 zone. Although the key SMAs are pointing higher, the price structure does not support bulls at the moment.

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A widespread up bar closing in the middle suggests that the bulls have no follow-through momentum. Hence, the rangebound behavior is expected to continue at current levels. On the upside, 116.40 remains a stiff resistance while 115.00 will be the immediate support.

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Saqib Iqbal

Saqib Iqbal

Saqib Iqbal is a market analyst, prop fund trader and mentor, serving the industry with his analysis and educational content since 2011. The author has great exposure to different financial markets and institutions. He's well-known for his day trading reviews and multiple timeframe analysis.