- The AUD/USD maintains a bearish bias as long as it stays under the downtrend line.
- A new lower low activates more declines.
- The US data could move the price later today.
The AUD/USD price has been trading in the green, around 0.6275 at the time of writing. The AUD is struggling to take the lead as the USD endeavors to recover some ground.
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The currency pair maintains a bearish bias despite temporary rebounds. Fundamentally, the US reported mixed data yesterday. Building Permits came in better than expected, while Housing Starts reported worse data. On the other hand, the Australian CB Leading Index came in worse compared to the previous reporting period.
Today, the Unemployment Rate came in at 3.5%, matching expectations, while Employment Change was reported at 0.9K in September, far below 25.0K expected, versus 36.3K in August.
Later, the US economic data and the FOMC members’ speeches could move the price. The US Philly Fed Manufacturing Index could be reported at -5.0 points compared to -9.9 in the previous reporting period.
Unemployment Claims are expected at 229K in the last week. Existing Home Sales may drop from 4.80M to 4.69M, while CB Leading Index could report a 0.3% drop.
Tomorrow, the Chinese GDP, Retail Sales, Unemployment Rate, Industrial Production, and Trade Balance could greatly impact the AUD.
AUD/USD price technical analysis: Broad range
The AUD/USD continues to move sideways between the 0.6200 psychological level and 0.6345. The down trendline represents a dynamic resistance. As long as it stays under this level, the bias remains bearish. Escaping from the current range could bring new trading opportunities. Technically, the pair moves sideways also because the US dollar seems undecided.
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False breakouts through the downtrend line or failing to reach it may signal downside pressure and precede a new sell-off. Only a valid breakout through the down trendline and a new higher high activates a larger rebound and brings long opportunities.
A valid breakdown below the 0.6200 key downside obstacle could activate a larger downside movement.
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