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AUD/USD Daily Outlooks

AUD/USD Price Near Resistance Ahead of US Retail Sales

  • The downtrend line stands as a dynamic resistance.
  • The US data should bring high action later today.
  • The Chinese data in the morning weakened the Aussie.

The AUD/USD price developed an upwards movement in the short term as the Dollar Index was in a corrective phase. Fundamentally, the USD took a hit from the US Unemployment Rate and the Average Hourly Earnings on Friday.

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The economic indicators reported poor data, so the USD’s depreciation was natural. Yesterday, the US inflation data had an impact. The CPI m/m rose by 0.4% in February, matching expectations, less than the 0.5% growth in the previous reporting period, while Core CPI reported a 0.5% growth, beating the 0.4% growth estimated.

Furthermore, the CPI y/y came in at 6.0%, as expected. Today, the US data could be decisive. Retail Sales may report a 0.3% drop, Core Retail Sales are expected to register a 0.1% drop, and PPI could increase by 0.3%, while Core PPI is predicted to report a 0.4% growth.

In the short term, the currency pair turned to the downside as the Chinese economic figures came in mixed early morning, weakening the Aussie. The unemployment rate increased from 5.5% to 5.6%, and even though the traders expected a potential drop to 5.3%, Industrial Production rose by 2.4% less than the 2.6% expected.

Retail Sales increased by 3.5%, matching expectations, while Fixed Asset Investment surged by 5.5%, beating the 4.5% growth estimated. The Australian Unemployment Rate is expected to drop from 3.7% to 3.6%, while Employment Change could come in at 49.7K versus -11.5K in the previous reporting period.

AUD/USD Price Technical Analysis: Bearish Pattern

AUD/USD price

Technically, the AUD/USD pair returned higher within an up-channel pattern. Now, it has found resistance at the weekly R1 of 0.6710. As you can see on the hourly chart, the rate failed to reach and retest the downtrend line, which is an upside obstacle. It’s almost to hit the
uptrend line, representing a downside obstacle.

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It remains to see how it reacts to this dynamic support. As long as it stays above it, the currency pair could try to resume its growth. Taking out this support activates more declines in the short term.

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Olimpiu Tuns

Olimpiu Tuns

Olimpiu Tuns graduated with a Master in Business Administration and is a seasoned Market Analyst / Trader / Trainer with 10 years of experience in the financial markets having expertise in Forex, Commodities, Index, Cryptocurrencies, and Stocks. He worked as a Market Analyst for three major brokerage companies, as a prop trader, and as a contributor/content creator for news portals and educational platforms.