Home EUR/USD Price Analysis: US Jobless Claims to Urge Fed’s Pause

EUR/USD Price Analysis: US Jobless Claims to Urge Fed’s Pause

  • The dollar remained close to its two-week low against major currencies.
  • Claims for unemployment benefits in the US jumped last week.
  • Markets are leaning toward a pause in Fed rate hikes.

Today’s EUR/USD price analysis is bullish. On Friday, the dollar remained close to its two-week low against major currencies. A surge in weekly jobless claims increased expectations that US interest rates were approaching their peak. Consequently, investors shifted their focus to the upcoming week, packed with central bank meetings.

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According to Thursday’s data, the number of new claims for unemployment benefits in the US reached the highest point in a year and a half. However, the data covered the Memorial Day holiday, which could have introduced some volatility. 

Nevertheless, this news sufficiently pushed the US dollar to a two-week low against major currencies in the previous session. Therefore, investors interpreted the data as a sign of a slowdown in the US job market. 

For the week, the dollar index, which measures the US currency against six major counterparts, is down by 0.6%. This is the largest weekly decline since mid-March, when concerns about the banking sector’s health unsettled markets. 

Meanwhile, the euro remained mostly unchanged after experiencing a 0.78% increase on Thursday. It reached a two-week intraday high due to the dollar’s sell-off. 

Market attention has shifted to the upcoming week, which will witness interest rate decisions from the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank. The Federal Reserve takes center stage. While money markets are leaning towards a pause in rate hikes, there is a 25% chance that the US central bank will implement a 25 basis points rate hike.

EUR/USD key events today

Investors will keep absorbing this week’s economic releases because there won’t be any significant releases from the US or the Eurozone today.

EUR/USD technical price analysis: Bullish move pauses to retest 1.0755.

EUR/USD technical price analysis
EUR/USD 4-hour chart

The EUR/USD has pulled back to retest the recently broken 1.0755 key level. The price trades well above the 30-SMA, showing bulls are in charge. Moreover, the RSI supports bullish momentum, trading above 50.

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The pullback has reached the 1.0755 level, which might hold as support. If that happens, the price will bounce higher, targeting the next resistance level at 1.0851. However, if the support level fails, we might see the pullback retesting the 30-SMA support.

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Saqib Iqbal

Saqib Iqbal

Saqib Iqbal is a market analyst, prop fund trader and mentor, serving the industry with his analysis and educational content since 2011. The author has great exposure to different financial markets and institutions. He's well-known for his day trading reviews and multiple timeframe analysis.