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AUD/USD Daily Outlooks

AUD/USD Price Analysis: Upbeat Chinese Data Supports Aussie

  • Figures revealed a 1.3% growth in China’s economy in the third quarter.
  • September saw US retail sales exceed expectations.
  • RBA Governor Michele Bullock expressed concerns about inflation.

In today’s AUD/USD price analysis, we’re seeing a surge in optimism as the pair takes a bullish stance. The catalyst is Wednesday’s remarkable outperformance in Chinese economic data, which has boosted Asian currencies, propelling the Aussie higher.

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Notably, there was a 1.3% growth in China’s economy during the third quarter, a notable acceleration from the previous quarter’s 0.5%. It surpassed market predictions of a 1% increase. Moreover, there was a rise in industrial output and a decrease in unemployment.

UOB economist Woei Chen Ho in Singapore remarked, “It essentially means that the growth target for this year, around 5%, will likely be achieved, possibly even exceeded.” 

The world’s second-largest economy has battled a sharp decline in growth since the second quarter, prompting authorities to intensify their support measures. Wednesday’s data batch suggests that these stimulus efforts are beginning to have an impact.

Meanwhile, strong US sales data prompted a significant increase in US yields on Tuesday. September saw US retail sales exceed expectations, reinforcing expectations of robust economic growth in the third quarter. Additionally, this report increases the possibility of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates in December or January.

Elsewhere, the head of Australia’s central bank referred to the domestic economy as “challenging,” with slow consumption but persistent inflation. Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Governor Michele Bullock expressed concerns about inflation, particularly in the services sector. Furthermore, she cautioned that the central bank was closely monitoring inflation. Consequently, tighter monetary policy would be necessary if it continued to exceed expectations.

AUD/USD key events today

Investors will receive data from the US, including:

  • The building permits report for September.
  • The crude oil inventories report.

AUD/USD technical price analysis: Price turns bullish above 0.6350.

AUD/USD technical price analysis
AUD/USD 4-hour chart

The AUD/USD price has gone bullish on the charts after the price broke above the 0.6350 resistance and the 30-SMA. However, the new bullish move is approaching strong resistance at the 0.6400 key level. This might cause a pause, allowing the price to retest the 30-SMA as support. 

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If the SMA holds as support, the price will likely bounce higher to take out 0.6400 and make a new high. However, bears will take back control if the price breaks below the 30-SMA and the RSI dips below 50.

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Saqib Iqbal

Saqib Iqbal

Saqib Iqbal is a market analyst, prop fund trader and mentor, serving the industry with his analysis and educational content since 2011. The author has great exposure to different financial markets and institutions. He's well-known for his day trading reviews and multiple timeframe analysis.