Home GBP/USD Weekly Forecast: BOE’s Tightening Nears Finish Line
GBP USD Forecast

GBP/USD Weekly Forecast: BOE’s Tightening Nears Finish Line

  • The pound is trading near a six-month low reached earlier in October.
  • UK  jobs data indicated a decrease in inflationary pressures.
  • The Bank of England (BoE) will likely maintain its current rates next week.

The GBP/USD weekly forecast is bearish as investors have locked their eyes on the Bank of England (BOE), expecting the central bank to wrap up its tightening cycle.

Ups and downs of GBP/USD

The pound ended the week lower due to market apprehension amid the ongoing Middle East war, which boosted the dollar. All eyes are now focusing on the upcoming Bank of England meeting. Currently, the pound is trading near a six-month low of 1.2039, reached earlier in October.

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Notably, a UK jobs report on Tuesday indicated a decrease in inflationary pressures within the labor market. This data caused the pound to drop, as it reinforced expectations that the BoE would maintain its current interest rates at the upcoming meeting.

Moreover, the British currency was vulnerable to global trends, particularly the dollar’s strength.

Next week’s key events for GBP/USD

Next week, GBP/USD traders will watch monetary policy meetings from the US and the UK. Markets are expecting the Fed to hold rates steady in November. Moreover, they are pricing an 80% chance of the same happening in December. 

Meanwhile, several reports this week confirmed the expectation that the Bank of England (BoE) will maintain its current rates during its policy meeting next week. The BoE will likely keep the rates unchanged at 5.25% on November 2, as per the consensus among most economists.

Finally, market participants will focus on US employment data, which might show continued strength in the labor market.

GBP/USD weekly technical forecast: Bears set to retest 1.2050 support.

GBP/USD weekly technical forecast
GBP/USD daily chart

On the charts, the GBP/USD pair trades between the 1.2050 support and the 1.2324 resistance levels. Although the price is chopping through the 22-SMA, the RSI shows that bears have the upper hand. The RSI trades in bearish territory under 50. Moreover, the previous trend was bearish, with the price respecting the 22-SMA as resistance. It makes it likely the downtrend pauses as bears take a break.

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As such, there is a high chance bears will challenge the 1.2050 support in the coming week. A break below this support would continue the downtrend. However, if the price breaks above the 1.2324 resistance, we could see a bullish trend reversal.

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Saqib Iqbal

Saqib Iqbal

Saqib Iqbal is a market analyst, prop fund trader and mentor, serving the industry with his analysis and educational content since 2011. The author has great exposure to different financial markets and institutions. He's well-known for his day trading reviews and multiple timeframe analysis.