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AUD/USD Price Analysis: Bulls Hit 4-Month Top Despite Low CPI

  • There was a drop in Australia’s inflation in October.
  • The Aussie benefited from a weakening greenback.
  • Financial markets anticipate the RBA to maintain current rates in December.

In Wednesday’s AUD/USD price analysis, we find the Australian dollar showcasing resilience, surging to a four-month high despite a recent dip in Australia’s inflation in October. This decline in inflation is primarily attributed to lower goods prices. 

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Notably, the Aussie benefited from a weakening greenback, which fell to an over three-month low. Speculation that the US Federal Reserve might begin rate cuts early next year is growing.

Meanwhile, Australia’s inflation figures reinforce the argument for the RBA to hold rates next week. The monthly consumer price index in October increased at an annual rate of 4.9%, a slowdown from September’s 5.6%. Moreover, it was below the market’s 5.2% forecast.

Furthermore, the CPI experienced a 0.3% decline in October alone, primarily due to decreased petrol prices, rent, and holiday travel. At the same time, the trimmed mean showed a 5.3% annual increase in October. 

Moody’s Analytics economist Harry Murphy Cruise remarked, “Australia’s October inflation print has no bad news. The lower-than-expected figure is an early Christmas present for households and businesses. Moreover, it spares the Reserve Bank Board from hiking in its meeting next week.”

Nevertheless, analysts caution that the monthly inflation data heavily favored goods in the first month of the quarter. However, it did not include price changes for various services. Meanwhile, financial markets anticipate the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to hold rates in December. Still, there is a 50% chance of a further hike to 4.60% in the first half of the next year.

AUD/USD key events today

  • The US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) report

AUD/USD technical price analysis: Potential surge to 0.6700 If bulls stay strong

AUD/USD technical price analysis`
AUD/USD 4-hour chart

On the charts, Aussie has surged to new heights above the 0.6600 key level. This move has strengthened the bullish bias by continuing the uptrend. Moreover, the price now sits well above the 30-SMA support, and the RSI is overbought.

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If bulls are still strong after the recent spike, the price might power on to the next resistance level at 0.6700. However, since the RSI shows overbought conditions, the price might retreat to retest the 30-SMA and the 0.6525 support level. The bullish trend will continue if bulls respect the 30-SMA support.

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Saqib Iqbal

Saqib Iqbal

Saqib Iqbal is a market analyst, prop fund trader and mentor, serving the industry with his analysis and educational content since 2011. The author has great exposure to different financial markets and institutions. He's well-known for his day trading reviews and multiple timeframe analysis.