EUR/USD Weekly Forecast: Softer Inflation Fuels Fed Cut Bets

• The EUR/USD weekly forecast was overshadowed as the US economy expanded at a bigger 1.4% rate in Q1.

• The US core PCE report showed softer inflation.

• Next week’s primary focus will be the US monthly employment report.

The EUR/USD weekly forecast shows more upside potential as Fed rate cut expectations rise with softer inflation data. 

Ups and downs of EUR/USD

EUR/USD had a slightly bullish week, during which the dollar fell. However, it was a slow week since there were few significant reports from the US. Since the week started, the main focus has been the core PCE price index. Other reports during the week included the US GDP, consumer confidence, and unemployment claims.

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The US economy expanded at a bigger 1.4% rate in Q1. Meanwhile, although consumer confidence fell, it came in higher than expected. The unemployment claims fell slightly, indicating strength in the labor market. Finally, the core PCE report aligned with expectations, showing softer inflation. As a result, expectations for a cut in September increased, weighing on the dollar.

Next week’s key events for EUR/USD

Next week, the US will release significant reports, including manufacturing business activity, FOMC meeting minutes, and nonfarm payrolls. At the same time, Fed Chair Powell will speak on Tuesday. Meanwhile, in the Eurozone, investors will review the ECB meeting minutes.

Next week’s primary focus will be the US monthly employment report, which will show the state of the labor market. Although inflation has eased in recent months, employment has remained robust. As a result, policymakers have remained cautious about rate cuts. For June, economists expect 180,000 additional jobs. This would be a drop from the previous 272,000 and would pave the way for rate cuts. 

Furthermore, the ECB and Fed minutes will provide clues on the rate cut outlooks for the US and the Eurozone. 

EUR/USD weekly technical forecast: Price retests trendline and 1.0700 support

On the technical side, the EUR/USD price recently broke above its resistance trendline. However, the move paused at the 1.0900 key resistance level before pulling back. The price has fallen below the 22-SMA to retest the recently broken trendline and the 1.0700 key support level. Therefore, EUR/USD is currently in a strong support zone. 

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If this support holds firm, the price will bounce higher to retest the 1.0700 resistance level. A break above this level would confirm the start of a bullish trend with a higher high.

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