USD/JPY Price Analysis: Yen Plunges as Ueda Dodges Hike Signals

• Japan’s central bank met on Friday and decided to keep interest rates unchanged.

• Ueda’s speech after the meeting contained little on future rate hikes.

• The US Central Bank lowered borrowing costs by 50-bps on Wednesday.

The USD/JPY price analysis shows the yen crashing after the Bank of Japan policy meeting. Although the central bank held rates as expected, Governor Ueda refrained from giving clear guidance on rate hikes. Instead, he focused on the economy. 

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Japan’s central bank met on Friday and decided to keep interest rates unchanged. Moreover, the central bank’s forecasts showed that consumption in Japan’s economy would increase. Such an outlook favors rate hike expectations as policymakers will be more willing to hike when demand is high. 

However, Governor Ueda’s speech after the meeting contained little on future rate hikes. He kept from giving clear signals on rate hikes, which disappointed investors who had expected more hawkish remarks. Ueda noted that future decisions would depend on the economy, which was a cautious statement. 

Meanwhile, the Fed has started its rate-cutting cycle aggressively. The US Central Bank lowered borrowing costs by 50-bps on Wednesday, shrinking the gap in interest rates between Japan and the US. Moreover, Powell’s speech indicated confidence that the fight against inflation was successful. Therefore, there will be more rate cuts in the future.

Although the yen collapsed on Friday, the future is bright. Lower interest rates in the US will continue to reduce the interest rate differentials between the two countries, weakening the popularity of the carry trade. At the same time, economists expect at least one more rate hike this year in Japan, which could boost the yen.

USD/JPY key events today

Investors will continue digesting the outcome of the Bank of Japan policy meeting, as there will be no other key economic releases.

USD/JPY technical price analysis: Price charges past resistance zone

On the technical side, the USD/JPY price broke above a solid resistance zone with a bullish engulfing candle. Initially, the price paused at the 0.5 Fib level, where bears triggered a pullback to the 30-SMA. However, the price stayed above the SMA and the RSI above 50, retaining the bullish bias. 

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Soon after, bulls returned with massive strength and pushed above the 143.01 resistance and the 0.5 Fib. The bullish engulfing candle closed above these levels, showing a clear break. The price is now aiming for the next hurdle at the 145.00 level.

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