Gold Forecast Subdued Post-Fed, Downside Limited by Geopolitics

• The gold forecast remains subdued after a hawkish Fed.
• Geopolitical concerns keep the downside limited in gold.
• Central bank buying and potential US tariff threats support the precious metal.

The gold forecast is subdued as the price has slipped below the $3,350 mark on Friday during the earlier European session. The Fed’s hawkish pause continues to weigh on the precious metal.

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The Fed’s recent policy reaffirmed two rate cuts by the end of 2025, followed by one in 2026 and one in 2027. The tighter outlook boosted real yields and dimmed the traction of non-yielding assets like gold.

Although the gold stays on a track to close the week with losses, the downside may be capped by the broader risk landscape. The growing tension in the Middle East continues to stoke investor anxiety. The probability of US intervention has increased since President Trump announced he would take a decision within two weeks if Iran doesn’t abandon its nuclear program. The G7 leaders and US Senate Intelligence Committee have highlighted the risk of escalation in the region, which could support the safe-haven flows into gold.

Another factor limiting the gold’s downside could be the July 9 deadline of tariff imposition, which is injecting fresh uncertainty into the global outlook. The equities are expected to see huge volatility as well that could push investors to seek safety in gold.

On the other hand, the US Dollar Index (DXY) slipped from one-week highs after the Fed’s announcement. This has offered a breather to the gold. A weaker dollar is favorable for gold, especially when equities experience high volatility.

Moreover, the institutional demand for precious metal remains intact, with 244 tons of gold purchased by the central banks in the first quarter of 2025. This buying could surge beyond 1000 tons by the end of 2025.

With Fed remarks, inflation data, and geopolitical concerns, the yellow metal is expected to play within a broad range of $3,200 to $3,400 over the coming months. The price remains supported by safe-haven demand and resilient buying by the institutions.

Gold Technical Forecast: Buyers Struggling at Trendline

The 4-hour chart of gold shows a favorable scenario for the gold. The price is wobbling around the rising trendline support while staying well below the 20-period SMA. If the price manages to break the support, it may gather more selling traction towards $3,300. The RSI is also well below 50.0 level, indicating more room for a fall.

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On the upside, the price stays supported by the trendline; it may jump towards the $3,375 area near the 20-period SMA. The next key level emerges at $3,400, ahead of $3,445.

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