AUD/USD Weekly Forecast: Choppy Around 0.6500 Amid Mixed Aus, US Data

• The AUD/USD weekly forecast shows a range-bound momentum as the data from both sides counterbalanced the price action.

• RBA’s unchanged rate decision could not impress buyers, while sellers shied amid a weaker greenback. 

• Traders look ahead to the US and AUS inflation figures to find a directional bias. 

The AUD/USD weekly forecast shows the pair holding steady amid mixed Australian and US economic signals, keeping markets cautious ahead of key inflation releases. After a softer economic indicator weakened the greenback, hopes of near-term monetary easing emerged again. 

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Meanwhile, the UoM Consumer Sentiment revealed the index falling to 50.3 from 53.6 in October, signaling growing concerns about fiscal uncertainty. The report suggested one-year inflation expectations climbing to 4.7%, with the five-year expectations easing to 3.6%. While the Challenger job cuts came over 153,000 private sector layoffs. 

In Australia, the Reserve Bank of Australia kept the cash rates unchanged at 3.6% in November. Meanwhile, Governor Michele Bullock stated that the board did not discuss policy easing amid persistent inflation pressure. The Australian CPI climbed by 1.3% QoQ from 0.7%, suggesting the odds of a prolonged restrictive policy. However, the weaker Chinese trade surplus and declining exports limit Aussie upside. 

AUD/USD Key Events Next Week

The major events in the coming week include:

• US Consumer Price Index ex Food and Energy (MoM)
• US Consumer Price Index ex Food and Energy (YoY)
• US Consumer Price Index (YoY)
• US Consumer Price Index (MoM)
• US Retail Sales (MoM)
• US Producer Price Index (MoM)
• AUD Employment Rate s.a.
• AUD Employment Change s.a.
• AUD Consumer Inflation Expectations 

In the coming week, traders anticipate the CPI data from both sides as a key market driver, as central bank actions are primarily linked with inflation.  

AUD/USD Weekly Technical Forecast: Sandwiched by 50- and 200-DMA

The AUD/USD daily chart reveals the pair under moderate selling pressure as it trades near 0.6500 after repeated attempts to stay above the short-term resistance levels. The price stays below the 20- and 50-day MA, reflecting sellers in control. While the pair consolidates above the 200-day MA. 

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The RSI is near 43, indicating subdued momentum. A break above 0.6560 could extend gains towards 0.6615 and 0.6650. Conversely, a drop below 0.6450 could trigger further downside towards 0.6400 and 0.6300. 

Support Levels

• 0.6450
• 0.6400
• 0.6300

Resistance Levels

• 0.6560
• 0.6615
• 0.6650

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