The Federal Reserve left its benchmark rate unchanged at 3.75%-4% on 28 October in a 10-2 vote, with two policymakers dissenting in favour of a quarter-point rise. Bitcoin rose to around $81,000 after the announcement before slipping back below $80,000 the following day.
Governor Lisa Cook and Cleveland Fed president Beth Hammack voted for a hike, the Fed’s policy statement shows. The dissent marks a turn from September, when the committee raised rates a quarter point to the current range in a unanimous 12-0 vote, its first increase since 2023.
What the statement said
The statement described the economy in firmer terms than before, saying: “Economic activity is expanding at a strong pace.” It also dropped earlier language on when a further rise might be needed, saying instead: “The accumulation of more information will help the Committee determine the policy stance appropriate to ensure a timely return of inflation to the Committee’s 2 percent goal.” Chair Kevin Warsh told his press conference that politics played no role in the decision.
Markets had expected the hold: about 90% odds stood on no change ahead of the announcement, according to CME FedWatch pricing. What the dissents changed is the path after it. Traders price a quarter-point rise at the 8-9 December meeting above 70%, and minutes from September’s meeting showed most officials judged another increase would likely be appropriate by year-end.
Bitcoin’s reaction and the level to watch
Bitcoin moved little on the decision itself, trading in the $81,000 area during the session. On 29 October it fell below $80,000, a level several analysts flag as key near-term support, as technology shares weakened. The coin sits roughly a third below its October 2025 record near $126,000. Elevated yields keep the pressure on: the 10-year Treasury yield stood near 5% after the decision, having peaked at 5.31% on 5 October.
Institutional flows ran the other way into the decision. US spot bitcoin ETFs took in $110 million on 26 October and $176 million on 27 October, after hedge funds and banks had cut 68,000 BTC of ETF exposure earlier in the month. September inflation at 3.7% year on year is the number behind the hawks’ case, a reading that had already lifted Fed hike odds and pushed bitcoin to test $81,300 support before this meeting.
The next test is the 8-9 December FOMC meeting, where the dissents put a further quarter-point rise live.
Share
Saqib Iqbal
