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The Canadian dollar enjoyed excellent employment figures, that helped it weather the greenback’s storm on Friday. The upcoming week contains a rate decision among other events. Here’s an outlook for the events that will impact the loonie, and an updated technical analysis for USD/CAD.
USD/CAD chart with support and resistance lines marked on it. Click to enlarge:
GDP was somewhat disappointing, as it rose by 0.4% rather than 0.5%. But Canada is officially out of recession, and the employment figures stole the show. Apart from the rate decision, note the double-feature trade balance release. OK, let’s review the events. The technical analysis will follow:
- Building Permits: The first housing sector figure for this week is published on Monday at 13:30 GMT. Canadian building permits have surprised by rising strongly in the past two months. The 1.6% rise is expected to be followed by a more modest 1.1% rise this time.
- Housing Starts: This housing figure has risen slowly in the past months and has reached 157K last month. A very small rise is predicted this time, of 1000 more house starts – to 158K. Published on Tuesday at 13:15 GMT, and will be somewhat overshadowed by the rate decision coming 45 minutes later.
- Rate decision: Mark Carney disappointed in last month’s rate decision by not declaring an earlier time for rate hikes. The text of the BOC Rate Statement hasn’t changed. The end of the second quarter of 2010 is still far. Also in the upcoming rate decision, due on Tuesday at 14:00 GMT, no change is expected in the Overnight Rate. The statement needs to be quite bullish in order to help the loonie.
- Trade Balance: Canada’s trade balance deficit is very small. It narrowed down to 0.9 billion last month, and is expected to squeeze to 0.6 billion. A surplus is quite possible. It’s published on Thursday at 13:30 GMT, at the same time as the American trade balance figure. This double-feature event always shakes USD/CAD.
- NHPI: The New Housing Price Index has posted growth in the past three months, including a neat rise of 0.5% last month. Similar to the other housing figures this week, steady and slow growth is expected also in this one. Published on Friday at 13:30 GMT.
USD/CAD Technical Analysis
USD/CAD fell at the beginning of the week and bounced off the 1.04 resistance line. It reached 1.06 before closing at 1.0578.
The past week’s perfect range trading of 1.04-1.06 strengthens these border lines, that were mentioned in last week’s outlook.
Above 1.06, I’ve added 1.0750 as another resistance line. It was the peak in recent weeks, and now serves as minor resistance. Above that, 1.0850 was another recent peak and works as a stronger resistance line.
Looking higher, a strong US dollar will have a hard time at 1.1130, which served as a strong resistance line during the summer, tested more than once.
Looking down below 1.04, 1.02 was the year-to-date low and now serves as a strong support line. Even further down, parity is the next line of support, but USD/CAD probably won’t get near there in the upcoming week.
I continue to be neutral on USD/CAD.
Although enjoying superb employment figures, also the neighbor from the south enjoyed such numbers. The expected rate hike needs to come sooner than later in order to help the loonie.
- For a broad view of all the week’s major event in all currencies, read the forex weekly outlook.
- For the Euro, read the EUR USD Forecast.
- For GBP/USD, look into the British Pound forecast.
- For the Australian dollar, read the AUD/USD forecast.
- For USD/CAD, check out the Canadian dollar forecast.
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