Canadian Dollar Outlook – August 17-21 2009
Canadian Dollar Forecast

Canadian Dollar Outlook – August 17-21 2009

After quite a volatile week, the greenback took over, and USD/CAD closed higher, above the critical support line. This week features Canadian CPI and 5 more important Canadian releases. Here’s an outlook for this week’s events in Canada, and a technical analysis for USD/CAD.

USD/CAD Forex Chart with important support and resistance lines marked:

USD/CAD August 2009

The double-feature Trade Balance release last week helped the Canadian dollar retrace some of its losses, but it didn’t win the week. After the Non-Farm Payrolls surprise, recovery seems real in the US. This week doesn’t feature too many American releases, so the following Canadian figures will dominate USD/CAD:

  1. Foreign Securities Purchases: This figure actually reflects the cash flow in and out of Canada. Lots of money has flown into Canada in the recent months, exceeding expectations time after time. The biggest surprise was last month, with 18.9B instead of 7.17B. This time, Canadian  Foreign Securities Purchases are predicted to stand at 16.25B. Published Tuesday at 12:30 GMT.
  2. CPI:  Prices in most western countries are hardly changing, or even dropping. Canada isn’t different – deflation is looming. After rising by 0.3% last time, Consumer Price Index  is predicted to fall by 0.2% this time. Core CPI, which draws the same attention, is predicted to rise by 0.1% after remaining unchanged last time. These figures are released on Wednesday at 11:00 GMT.
  3. Leading Index: An hour and a half after the CPI release, at 12:30 GMT on Wednesday, a broader number is due. The Leading Index is a composite figure based on 10 economic indicators. Though most of the indicators have already been published, this bottom-line figure is interesting. Last month, the index disappointed by falling by 0.1% instead of rising. Optimism is still strong, and the index is expected to rise by 0.2%.
  4. Wholesale Sales: Retailers feel the consumers, and order goods from wholesalers according to the consumers’ demand. This makes it this figure interesting. This figure was negative since December. This time it’s still expected to fall, but only by 0.1%. It sure could surprise and rise for the first time in 9 months. Published on Thursday at 12:30 GMT.
  5. BOC Review: Though not the BOC’s principal report, the  BOC Review still features many articles about the Canadian economy. Mark Carney’s employees are working hard…Published on Thursday at 14:30 GMT.

USD/CAD Technical Analysis

It wasn’t the Canadian dollar’s best week. The greenback gradually took command, and USD/CAD rose up to 1.1070 on Wednesday. It later fell back up to the old resistance line at 1.08, reinstating it after it was breached two weeks ago. Finally, USD/CAD closed at 1.0978.

Well, it looks like the American dollar’s weakness is behind us. 1.08, that served many times as a support and resistance line, returned to its duty. Below that, 1.0340 is a strong support line, but seems very far now.

Looking up, 1.1130 has a  strengthened role as a resistance line. It wasn’t directly tested last week, but it wasn’t far from that.

If the greenback pushes forward, the next resistance line is 1.1470, which served as support line many times in the past.

In last week’s Canadian dollar  outlook I was a dollar bull, and it proved correct. The sentiment remains the same this week.

Further reading:

Yohay Elam

Yohay Elam

Yohay Elam: Founder, Writer and Editor I have been into forex trading for over 5 years, and I share the experience that I have and the knowledge that I've accumulated. After taking a short course about forex. Like many forex traders, I've earned a significant share of my knowledge the hard way. Macroeconomics, the impact of news on the ever-moving currency markets and trading psychology have always fascinated me. Before founding Forex Crunch, I've worked as a programmer in various hi-tech companies. I have a B. Sc. in Computer Science from Ben Gurion University. Given this background, forex software has a relatively bigger share in the posts.