Forex Weekly Outlook – August 17-21 2009

The upcoming week in forex trading features many interesting releases: Japanese GDP, housing figures in the US, and lots of important British figures dominate the scene. There are many more important indicators. Let’s see what’s awaiting us on the third week of August:

Monday, August 17th:  Rightmove HPI starts the week in Britain. It’ll probably continue rising.

Japanese Prelim GDP provides a very strong start for the week. After a full year of contraction, and a devastating first quarter (drop of 4%), growth is expected to return to Japan in the second quarter of 2009.

Swiss Retail Sales are published in the morning, with an expected rise of 0.8%. European Trade Balance is predicted to show a growing surplus.

American  Empire State Manufacturing Index is expected to turn positive and stand at 2.6. The more interesting US release is  TIC Long-Term Purchases, which express the flow of money to the US. Also this figure is predicted to turn positive, and stand at 17.8 billion.

Tuesday, August 18th: Australian  Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes will provide an insight on Australia’s policymakers’ thoughts.

In Britain,  CPI and Core CPI are expected to show an even slower inflation. Britain is still not deflationary.

In Europe, the  German ZEW Economic Sentiment is an excellent gauge for the economy. After the surprising European growth figures, this index is predicted to jump from 39.5 to 45.2.

In Canada,  Foreign Securities Purchases is the northern version for the American  TIC Long-Term Purchases, and they’re expected to ease to 14 billion.

American  Building Permits are predicted to stay stable, at 0.68 million. At the same time, another housing figure is due:  Housing Starts which are expected to post a small rise.

After CPI came as expected last week, it’s the PPI’s turn. Producer Price Index is expected to drop by 0.2% – deflationary…

Also New Zealand posts its Input PPI which is predicted to fall by 0.9% (quarterly figure).

Wednesday, August 19th: Australia’s  MI Leading Index starts the day.

It’s Germany’s turn to post the PPI, which is expected to drop. Also in Europe, Current Account is expected to show a deepening deficit.

British  MPC Meeting Minutes might explain the BOE’s surprising decision to expand the Quantitative Easing program. Later in Britain,  CBI Industrial Order Expectations is predicted to show an improvement.

Canada probably isn’t avoiding deflation, with CPI expected to fall y 0.2%. Core CPI is predicted to rise by 0.1%. Canadian  Leading Index is expected to rise modestly.

Thursday, August 20th: Switzerland enjoys a surplus in its  Trade Balance. It’s expected to grow.

Britain’s Retail Sales will draw lots of attention. They’re expected to rise by 0.4%.  Public Sector Net Borrowing is published at the same time in the UK.

Wholesale Sales in Canada are predicted to drop by 0.1%. Canada’s economy is quite stable.

After disappointing last week, American  Unemployment  Claims are  predicted to remain around the 550K mark. Later in the US:  Philly Fed Manufacturing Index is expected print a better score this time, -1.9.

Friday, August 21st: Europe posts lots of Purchasing Managers’ Index figures. It begins with the  French Flash Manufacturing PMI and  Flash Services PMI, continues with the same figures for Germany half an hour later, and after 30 minutes, the all-European numbers are published. All the numbers are expected to advance, but none are expected to reach the pivotal 50 mark, which is the borderline between contraction and expansion.

American  Existing Home Sales have a nice goal to achieve: 5 million sales. This interesting housing figure will be published near the end of the day.

Last but not least, Ben Bernanke will talk about “Reflections on a Year of Crisis” in a conference in  Jackson Hole. Will he refer to last week’s FOMC Statement?

Those are major events expecting us this week. I’ll later post coverages for the Canadian dollar, British Pound, Australian dollar and maybe another currency. And as usual, the daily forex outlooks will be published every day.

One more thing – I’m reminding you that guest posts are welcome!

Update: All the coverages are ready:

Further reading:

• For AUD/USD, check out the  Aussie Outlook.
• For the EUR/USD, check out the  EUR/USD Outlook.
• For a coverage of GBP/USD, read the  British Pound Outlook.
• For the Canadian dollar, check out the  USD/CAD Outlook.