Canadian Dollar Outlook – October 12-16 2009

The Canadian dollar enjoyed very good news throughout the week, and broke support lines downwards. Will this trend continue? Here’s an outlook for the main Canadian events, and an updated technical analysis for USD/CAD.

For the latest outlook, check out the section:  USD/CAD Forecast.

USD/CAD forex chart, with support and resistance lines marked on it. Click to enlarge:

The great Building Permits and Ivey PMI numbers on Tuesday pushed USD/CAD lower. This was the first step. Friday’s excellent unemployment rate, that fell to 8.4%, pushed USD/CAD further down. Is USD/CAD going to parity? This week’s CPI stands out in a more light calendar, that begins after Thanksgiving on Monday. Let’s see what’s up:

1. NHPI: The New Housing Price Index posted a rise last month – the first rise in 10 months. This indicates that also the housing sector is improving. After the 0.3% rise last time, NHPI is predicted to rise by 0.2%. Published on Tuesday at 12:30 GMT.
2. New Motor Vehicle Sales: Canada, similar to its southern neighbor, relies on sales of cars and trucks for the economy’s strength. After a nice rise of 5.3% last month, the number of sales isn’t expected to change this time. Published on Wednesday at 12:30 GMT.
3. Manufacturing Sales: The value of monthly sales made by manufacturers swings quite wildly. July saw a drop of 6%, while last month’s release saw a rise of 5.5%. Expectations are usually of lesser magnitude. Also this time, Manufacturing Sales are expected to rise by 1%. A bigger move is not ruled out. Published on Thursday at 12:30 GMT.
4. CPI: The most important figure is kept for the end of the week – Friday at 11:00 GMT. Prices have hardly moved in Canada during the crisis, allowing the BOC to lower the interest rates without fear. A rise in prices is necessary for a future rate hike and more strength for the loonie. Like last month, CPI is expected to remain unchanged. Also Core CPI is expected to follow last month’s result with a 0.1% rise.

USD/CAD Technical Analysis

In last week’s USD/CAD Outlook, I wrote that I was neutral about this pair, and that only extraordinary employment figures would move this pair out of range. Indeed, very extraordinary figures sent the loonie to new ground.

USD/CAD began falling as the week started, riding on the good figures to drop below 1.0625. After trading in the 1.05s, the drop in unemployment caused a gap in chart, sending USD/CAD to close at 1.0421 – almost 400 pips in one week!

The next line is at 1.03. This round number served as a support line at the height of the crisis, about one year ago.  Looking further down, USD/CAD Parity is down there. 1.0000 is not only parity, but also a resistance and a support line during 2008.

A strengthening greenback will meet minor resistance at 1.0625, the previous support line. Far up, 1.1130 is a strong barrier.

James Chen also writes about USD/CAD’s moves in his interesting technical analysis.

My sentiment is now bearish on USD/CAD. The recovery in the Canadian economy is real, and USD/CAD parity also looks real.

Further reading:

• For a broad view of the major events this week, read the  Forex Weekly Outlook.
• For the Euro, read the EUR/USD Outlook.
• For the British Pound, check out the GBP/USD Outlook.
• For the Australian dollar, read the AUD/USD Outlook.