Australian Dollar Outlook – October 12-16 2009
AUD/USD Forecast

Australian Dollar Outlook – October 12-16 2009

The Aussie had a superb week. The rate hike by the RBA gave the first boost, and the excellent employment figures took AUD/USD over 90 cents. 6 events will impact the Aussie on its new ground. Here’s an outlook for major events in Australia, and an updated technical analysis.

AUD/USD forex graph, with support and resistance lines inside. Click to enlarge:

AUD/USD October 2009

Glenn Stevens raised the Australian interest rate to 3.25%, being the pioneer in rate hikes. It raised the question about which country will be next to raise the rates. Later, the Aussie bounced off a resistance line, but the excellent employment figures took it over the top. This week, Stevens will continue to impact the Aussie in various ways. Let’s see what’s awaiting us:

  1. NAB Business Confidence: The National Australia Bank surveys 450 businesses about the current economic conditions. This survey showed improving conditions in the past 3 months, with the score being on the rise. Last month’s score of 18 points is expected to followed by an even better one this time. Published on Tuesday at 00:30 GMT.
  2. Westpac Consumer Sentiment: Another Australian Bank brings a consumer survey this time. Westpac surveys 1200 consumers about their thoughts of the economy, focusing on future purchases. This indicator has risen in the past 4 months, with a rise of 5.2% last month. A more modest rise is expected this time. Published on Wednesday at midnight.
  3. NAB Quarterly Business Confidence: We return to the National Australia Bank for another business survey – a quarterly one. The report for the third quarter might be published as early as Wednesday, but could be released later. Contrary to other Australian figures, this one has been negative in the past 6 months, with -4 last time. Expectations for improving conditions are expected this time – a positive number.
  4. Glenn Stevens speaks: After last week’s rate hike and the excellent employment figures, RBA governor Glenn Stevens will speak in Perth and will speak about future policy. His speech is due on Wednesday at 23:30 GMT.
  5. MI Inflation Expectations: The Melbourne Institute publishes this early inflation data before the government’s CPI. Australian prices have picked up slowly, with annually adjusted expectations at 3.5% in the last two months. A higher figure now will justify Glenn Stevens’ decision to raise the rates. Published on Thursday at midnight.
  6. RBA Monthly Bulletin: Completing the  assessments for the economy, this report by the RBA gives us an insight to how they see the situation, and may hint about future policy. The report is released on Thursday at 00:30 GMT.

AUD/USD Technical Analysis

As aforementioned, the Aussie traded on data last week, testing the 0.8950 resistance line mentioned in last week’s AUD/USD Outlook, before riding on the employment figures and climbing above them, closing at 0.9035.

0.8950 now serves as a support line for AUD/USD. Below that, 0.85 is a major support line, that the Aussie had a hard time breaking it.

Looking up, 0.9090 was the peak AUD/USD reached. This also worked as a resistance line in 2008 and 2008. A stronger resistance line is at 0.93, which was a support line last summer, when the Aussie was close to parity with the US dollar.

I continue to be bullish on the Aussie, but it might take a rest this week. All the economic indicators are positive, and the growing yield makes it attractive. After a big ride, the Aussie might take a rest this week and trade in a range before gathering more momentum.

Further reading:

Yohay Elam

Yohay Elam

Yohay Elam: Founder, Writer and Editor I have been into forex trading for over 5 years, and I share the experience that I have and the knowledge that I've accumulated. After taking a short course about forex. Like many forex traders, I've earned a significant share of my knowledge the hard way. Macroeconomics, the impact of news on the ever-moving currency markets and trading psychology have always fascinated me. Before founding Forex Crunch, I've worked as a programmer in various hi-tech companies. I have a B. Sc. in Computer Science from Ben Gurion University. Given this background, forex software has a relatively bigger share in the posts.