Canadian Dollar Outlook – September 7-11 2009
Canadian Dollar Forecast

Canadian Dollar Outlook – September 7-11 2009

USD/CAD remained in the mainstream, with perfect range trading. This week’s rate decision and 3 more important Canadian indicators will shape the loonie’s direction. Here’s an outlook for the key Canadian events, and a technical analysis for USD/CAD.

USD/CAD updated forex graph, with support and resistance lines

USD/CAD Range Trading

The surprising rise in Canadian jobs (employment change) pushed USD/CAD down on Friday, but it wasn’t enough to breach technical levels. Let’s see what’s up this week, after the Labor Day holiday on Monday:

  1. Building Permits: After the long weekend, Canadian  Building Permits are the first indicator, and quite an important one. This figure has been better than expected in the last 4 months. It rose by 1% last month. This time, the rise is expected to be more modest – 0.5%. Published on Tuesday at 12:30 GMT.
  2. Housing Starts: Another major housing indicator is due on Wednesday at 12:15 GMT. Contrary to the Building Permits, this indicator disappointed last time by falling below expectations and below the previous month’s number. After hitting 134K last time,  Housing Starts are expected to rise to 137K.
  3. Trade Balance: As usual, Canadian  Trade Balance is published together with the American one. This double-feature release makes USD/CAD very volatile around the releases, on Thursday at 12:30 GMT. In the past three months, Canada is experiencing a deficit in trade balance, although it isn’t big. After last month’s 100 million deficit, it’s expected to double this time.
  4. Rate decision: No inflation fears loom over Canada and its rock bottom  Overnight Rate of 0.25%. The BOC isn’t expected to raise the interest rate – not now and not until the end of the year. Traders’ eyes will be on the  BOC Rate Statement. Mark Carney and co. will hint on future policy, and more importantly will speak their mind on the Canadian economy. Published on Thursday at 13:00 GMT.
  5. NHPI: The week began with the housing sector and also ends with it.  New Housing Price Index dropped ten months straight, and is expected to drop once again, this time by 0.1%. Published on Friday at 12:30 GMT, when there aren’t any major US indicators.

USD/CAD Technical Analysis

Similar to other currencies, the loonie exercised range trading. The range was 1.0824 to 1.1102, with the support line of 1.08 and the resistance line of 1.1130 mentioned in last week’s USD/CAD outlook. The dip to 1.0720 in the week before was merely a false break due to low volume in the summer.

All in all, I stay with my current support line of 1.08 as a pivotal line.  Below 1.08, 1.0340 is the next support line, far down. It’ll be approached only a major collapse of the greenback.

Looking up, 1.1130 is a resistance line that served as such two weeks ago. Above that, a strengthening US dollar will meet major resistance at 1.1470, which worked as both support and resistance in the past.

I’m moving from a slightly bullish sentiment to a neutral one about this pair. Only a surprising rate statement will shake USD/CAD.

Further reading:

Yohay Elam

Yohay Elam

Yohay Elam: Founder, Writer and Editor I have been into forex trading for over 5 years, and I share the experience that I have and the knowledge that I've accumulated. After taking a short course about forex. Like many forex traders, I've earned a significant share of my knowledge the hard way. Macroeconomics, the impact of news on the ever-moving currency markets and trading psychology have always fascinated me. Before founding Forex Crunch, I've worked as a programmer in various hi-tech companies. I have a B. Sc. in Computer Science from Ben Gurion University. Given this background, forex software has a relatively bigger share in the posts.