The Swiss central bank has been particularly aggressive with currency interventions. What is the outlook for EUR/CHF?
Here is their view, courtesy of eFXdata:
Credit Agricole CIB Research advises against buying CHF around current levels. CACIB is short CHF via a structural long EUR/CHF position targeting a move towards 1.15.
“While it appears the CHF’s sensitivity to risk aversion is rising again with the latest data suggesting a less aggressive currency intervention stance by the SNB, we do not doubt that the central bank is prepared to step up interventions should currency appreciation pressure rise more meaningfully from here. After all, weak fundamentals as reflected in rising deflation risk should keep the central bank in a position to stick to a more aggressive monetary policy stance for longer,” CACIB notes.
“View wise, we continue to advise against buying the CHF at these levels with both the SNB outlook and elevated speculative long positioning likely to prevent another meaningful leg higher,” CACIB adds.
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