The Swiss franc is occasionally a safe-haven currency. What can we expect in the first quarter of the year?
Here is their view, courtesy of eFXdata:
CIBC Research discusses CHF outlook and looks for the currency to remain contained in the near-term. CIBC targets EUR/CHF at 1.09 in Q1 and at 1.11 in Q3.
“For twenty months now, the realized volatility for USD/CHF has been negligible. Moreover, the pair has essentially been oscillating around par for the better part of the last four years. That sleepy trend for CHF looks likely to continue,” CIBC notes.
“In terms of the endogenous backdrop, the SNB appears to be far from shifting policy. In its last meeting, the Bank noted that its negative policy rate is offsetting the upward impact of its current account on the CHF. But in addition, prolonged low rates are also having an effect on Switzerland’s mortgage and real estate markets,” CIBC adds.
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