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ECB QE: Are reinvestments worth an extra €20 billion/month?

The president of the ECB certainly did not like the market reaction to  the new measures he introduced. He can probably blame  himself, at least partially, for creating huge expectations and not meeting them.

Draghi did some damage control, especially in explaining the magnitude of re-investing proceeds and also admitted, in the video below, that he was trying to mitigate the market reaction.

Among other things, Draghi explained  in a speech in New York  that the extension of the program by 6 months and the re-investing of proceeds are worth no less than 680 billion euros.

Markets were  disappointed by the lack of new buys: the ECB left the monthly buy rate at 60 billion. Adding 6 months to the program therefore adds 6×60 = 360 billion euros.

So if we do the most simplistic math to try capture the impact of re-investing proceeds (maturing bonds), we get 680-260=320 billion.

From now, early December 2015 and yntil the end of March 2017 we have a total of 16 months:. So if we spread out 320 billion over 16 months, we get an extra 20 billion a month, making the total= 60+20=80 billion/month.

And a rise to 75 billion was expected. So according to this very  simplistic math, we can actually see a beat of market expectations.

Yet again, these calculations are very simplistic and  maintaining the level of the balance sheet is something the Fed  had done from the very beginning. In addition and as seen here, Draghi  admits he is in  damage control mode. Will markets  buy it?

More: ECB December Decisions – all the updates

Draghi admits (from 0:59):

Yohay Elam

Yohay Elam

Yohay Elam: Founder, Writer and Editor I have been into forex trading for over 5 years, and I share the experience that I have and the knowledge that I've accumulated. After taking a short course about forex. Like many forex traders, I've earned a significant share of my knowledge the hard way. Macroeconomics, the impact of news on the ever-moving currency markets and trading psychology have always fascinated me. Before founding Forex Crunch, I've worked as a programmer in various hi-tech companies. I have a B. Sc. in Computer Science from Ben Gurion University. Given this background, forex software has a relatively bigger share in the posts.