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Elliott Wave Analysis: Corrective Bounce within Downtrend on USDCAD

USDCAD is still trading quite aggressively lower after the price made a sharp reversal to the downside from 1.468 area, where the price completed a higher degree bullish structure. That said, the price of USDCAD is likely going even lower as the decline from 1.4680 has unfolded in five waves, labeled as wave A/I; first wave of a minimum big three waves of a decline. However, nothing moves in straight lines so we need to be aware of a corrective bounce up in wave B/II which is now already underway with still some room left towards 1.3700 area since we expect a bigger corrective three wave recovery.

USDCAD, Daily

usdcad d

On the lower time frame, USDCAD has been trading slightly lower last week from the upper side of a trading range so it appears that wave B correction is still unfolding. We are looking at a triangle currently with the price moving up into wave D, but wave E) is still missing. As such, the pair will likely stay trapped in a range for a few more sessions, before a new impulsive wave may lift pair up to 1.3500 area.

USDCAD, 4H

usdcad 4 (1)

 

A Triangle is a common 5 wave pattern labeled A-B-C-D-E that moves counter-trend and is corrective in nature. Triangles move within two channel lines drawn from waves A to C, and from waves B to D. A Triangle is either contracting or expanding depending on whether the channel lines are converging or expanding. Triangles are overlapping five wave affairs that subdivide 3-3-3-3-3.

Basic Triangle Pattern:

Gregor Horvat

Gregor Horvat

Grega Horvat Grega is based in Slovenia and has been involved in markets since 2003. He is the owner of Ew-Forecast, but before that he was working for Capital Forex Group and TheLFB.com. His feature articles have been published on FXstreet.com, Thestreet.com, Action forex, Forex TV, Istockanalyst, ForexFactory, Fxtraders.eu, Insidefutures.com, etc. He recently won the award on FXStreet.com for Best Forex Analysis in 2016. At Ew-forecast he helps clients and educates them about the Elliott wave principle and how to label and track unfolding patterns in real time. His approach to the markets is mainly technical. He uses a lot of different methods when analyzing the markets such as candlestick patterns, MA, technical indicators etc. His specialty, however, is Elliott Wave Theory which could be very helpful especially if you know how to use it in combination with other tools/indicators. EW-Forecast To be involved in the market effectively, you need the right guidance and resources, and our team can help you to achieve that. Our team is providing advanced informations about Elliott Wave theory in real time. The Elliott Wave Principle gives you a method for identifying the behavior of the markets and at what points the market is most likely to turn. We help new traders who are interested in Elliott Wave theory to understand it correctly. We are doing our best to explain our views as simple as possible with educational goal, because knowledge itself is power!