The pressure on the pound could continue into the trading week of June 6th: a fresh opinion poll held by Opinium for The Observer shows a lead for the Leave campaign: 43% to 40%. While the number of undecideds is quite high, there are two noteworthy changes in this poll.
First, it is a switch from the previous poll from May 19th which showed the Remain camp leading by 44% to 40%. This adds onto the Brexit momentum seen also in the ICM and ORB polls.
Secondly, within the ranks of the undecideds, the tendency towards the Remain camp has diminished:
However, Opinium said a move to leave had also been reflected in answers to their so-called “nudge” question, which asks those who don’t yet know how they will vote in what direction they are leaning. In the last Opinium survey two weeks ago, those split 55% leaning to remain and 32% leaning towards leave.
In the latest survey the gap has narrowed dramatically, with 36% leaning towards remain and 33% towards leave, even when the methodological updates were implemented. When those who don’t know were forced to choose, 47% said they lean more towards remain, while 32% lean more towards leave.
And it seems that immigration is taking center stage.
The pound could open the new trading week somewhat lower against its peers. While the dollar is licking its NFP wounds, EUR/GBP and GBP/JPY could see more significant losses for the pound, at least until the next poll.
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