Search ForexCrunch

Terrible jobs report: 38K jobs gained with additional bad news: -59K in revisions, participation rate falls to 62.6% and the weekly hours are down to 34.4K. Lowest since September 2010. Wages are OK with 0.2% m/m, 2.5% y/y but this doesn’t help.

USD crashing across the board with chances for a rate hike in June basically erased and chances for a hike in July going for 60% to 42% – a rate hike only after the elections?

The US was expected to report a gain of 160K and  average hourly earnings to rise by 0.2%. The Verizon strike was said to skew data to the downside, but the magnitude of the impact was unclear.

More:

 

The US dollar and market in  general were very calm ahead of the publication.

NFP Live Blog

 

May  NFP Data (updated)

  • Non-Farm Payrolls:  38K  (exp. +164K, last 160K  before revisions)
  • Average Hourly Earnings:0.2%, 2.5%  (exp. +0.2% m/m, last month +0.3% m/m, 2.5% y/y)
  • Revisions: -59K  (-19K last time)
  • Participation Rate: 62.6%  (62.8% last month )
  • Unemployment Rate: 4.7%  (exp.4.9%,  last month 5% before revisions)
  • Private Sector: TBA  (ADP showed only +173K).
  • Real Unemployment Rate (U-6): 9.7%  (previous: 9.7%).
  • Employment to population ratio: 59.7%  (previous: 59.7%)
  • Average  workweek: 34.4  (exp. 34.5K, last month: 34.4).

NFP Currency Reaction

  • EUR/USD traded  around 1.1150 after Draghi’s drag – a quiet ECB meeting which was slightly dovish. The pair shoots above resistance at 1.1250 and hits 1.1270.
  • GBP/USD was  around 1.4430 with all eyes on the Brexit referendum and recent polls weighing on cable.Cable challenges the 1.45 level, seems cautious ahead of fresh polls.
  • USD/JPY was around 108.87 after the yen enjoyed a “buy the rumor sell the fact”.. The pair loses 108 with support at 107.65.
  • USD/CAD traded around 1.3080. Trade balance was published in  Canada at the same time. The pair is dipping under 1.30
  • AUD/USD was around 0.7250 after the blockbuster GDP report earlier in the week.  Aussie is challenging resistance at 0.73.
  • NZD/USD traded above the 0.6840 support after a rise in milk prices.  Kiwi tops 0.69

A free fall of the greenback – here is the daily chart of EUR/USD:

EURUSD daily chart after NFP June 3 2016