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EUR/USD made a move to the upside but has retreated since. The team at BTMU analyzes the speculation:

Here is their view, courtesy of eFXnews:

BTMU FX Strategy Research note that the latest IMM report revealed that speculators are beginning to buy into the outlook for a stronger euro during the rest of this year. (see here)

“In recent weeks, speculators have built up net long euro positioning for the first time in three years. In the latest reported week, the net long positions even reached their highest level since the end of October 2013.

The breakdown of positioning reveals that it has been driven both by Asset manager/institutional investors building up long euro positions and leveraged funds paring back short euro positioning,” BTMU adds.

“The recent euro rally has not yet been fully embraced by the market leaving scope for further upside in the near-term even if the current spot rate already appears to be running a little ahead of our short-term model valuation estimate,” BTMU argues.

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