EUR/USD Forecast April 26-30 – Euro punches above 1.21

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EUR/USD rallied late in the week and pushed across the 1.21 level. There are seven releases in the upcoming week. Here is an outlook at the highlights and an updated technical analysis for EUR/USD.

The ECB meeting was described as “a meeting to forget”, as policymakers maintained policy and provided little in the way of future plans. ECB head Lagarde stated that it was premature to discuss tapering QE.

Manufacturing continues to shine, as Germany and eurozone Manufacturing PMIs posted readings well into expansionary territory. Services has not been as strong, with Germany and eurozone Services PMIs posting readings just above the 50-level, which separates contraction from expansion.

In the US, unemployment claims dropped for a second straight week to 547 thousand, down from 576 thousand beforehand. Manufacturing PMI in March improved to 60.6, up from 59.0. A reading above the 50-neutral level points to growth.

EUR/USD daily chart with support and resistance lines on it. Click to enlarge:

  1. German Ifo Business Climate: Monday, 8:00.  Business Confidence is expected to continue to accelerate. The indicator rose to 96.6 in March and the forecast for April stands at 97.8.
  2. German GfK Consumer Climate: Wednesday, 6:00. Consumer confidence remains in negative territory but has been improving. The indicator came in -6.2 in March, up from -12.9. The consensus for April stands at -4.8 points.
  3. German Unemployment Change: Thursday, 7:55. Unemployment fell by 8 thousand in February, better than the estimate of -4 thousand. The estimate for March stands at -10 thousand.
  4. Monetary Data: Thursday, 8:00. M3 Money Supply dipped to 12.3% in February, down from 12.5%. The indicator is expected to fall sharply to 10.2%. Private Loans remained at 3.0% and the February stands at  3.2%.
  5. German Prelim GDP: Friday, 8:00. GDP for the first quarter is expected to take a downturn, with an estimate of -1.5%. The country continues to grapple with the Covid pandemic and tighter health restrictions have hampered economic growth.
  6. Eurozone Inflation Report: Friday, 9:00. Pent-up demand is leading to higher inflation. Headline CPI rose to 1.3% in March, up from 0.9% and is expected to rise to 1.6%. Core CPI ticked lower to 0.9%, down from 1.1% and is forecast to dip to 0.8% in March.

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Technical lines from top to bottom:

We start with resistance at 1.2403.

1.2258 (mentioned last week) has held in resistance since the first week in January.

1.2089 is next.

1.1994 is an immediate support line.

1.1849 is next.

1.1779 is the final support line for now.

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I am bullish on EUR/USD

The euro has been red-hot in the month of April, with gains of 3.12%. The US dollar remains under pressure, and the euro’s positive momentum could continue this week.

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Kenny Fisher - Senior Writer A native of Toronto, Canada, Kenneth worked for seven years in the marketing and trading departments at Bendix, a foreign exchange company in Toronto. Kenneth is also a lawyer, and has extensive experience as an editor and writer.