EUR/USD Forecast April 29 – May 3 – Wobbly euro falls to 22-month low

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EUR/USD posted sharp losses last week, dropping close to 1.0%. It’s a busy week, with German and eurozone inflation and manufacturing PMIs. Here is an outlook for the highlights of this week and an updated technical analysis for EUR/USD.

German Ifo Business Climate dipped to 99.2, shy of the estimate of 99.9 points. Eurozone consumer confidence remained mired in negative territory, with a score of -8 in April.

In the U.S, last week’s numbers were positive. Durable goods orders climbed 2.7%, crushing the estimate of 0.7%. Core durable goods orders gained 0.4%, marking a 9-month high. This was followed by a strong initial GDP release of 3.2% in Q1, well above expectations. This was much stronger than Final GDP for Q4, which came in at 2.2%.

EUR/USD daily chart with support and resistance lines on it. Click to enlarge:

https://www.tradingview.com/x/Rv1Pjlur/

  1. Spanish Parliamentary Election: Sunday, All Day. Spaniards go to the polls to elect a new government. A strong showing by the right-wing parties could spook investors and weigh on the euro.
  2. Monetary Data: Tuesday, 9:00. M3 Money Supply improved to 4.3% in February, and the March estimate stands at 4.2%. Private loans are expected to remain at 3.3%.
  3. French Flash GDP: Tuesday, 5:30. The second largest economy in the eurozone grew at 0.3% in Q4 of 2018, edging above the estimate of 0.2%. No change is expected in the Q1 release.
  4. German GfK Consumer Climate: Tuesday, 6:00. Consumer confidence slipped to 10.4 points in March, missing the estimate of 10.8 points. The forecast for April stands at 10.3 points.
  5. French Consumer Spending: Tuesday, 6:45. Consumer spending declined 0.4% in March, marking the second decline in three months. Better news is expected in April, with an estimate of 0.4%.
  6. Spanish Flash GDP: Tuesday, 7:00. The Spanish economy edged up to 0.7% in Q4, above the estimate of 0.6%. The forecast for Q1 stands at 0.6%.
  7. German Preliminary CPI: Tuesday, All Day. German inflation dropped to 0.4% in March, missing the estimate of 0.6%. The indicator is expected to edge up to 0.5% in April.
  8. German Unemployment Change: Tuesday, 7:55. Germany continually posts declines in unemployment rolls. The indicator slowed to -7 thousand in March, and the forecast for April is -6 thousand.
  9. Eurozone Flash GDP: Tuesday, 9:00. The eurozone economy continues to post weak growth levels, posting two straight gains of 0.2%. The forecast for Q1 is 0.3%.
  10. German Retail Sales: Thursday, Tentative. Retail sales is the primary gauge of consumer spending and should be treated as a market-mover.
  11. Manufacturing PMIsMonday, 7:15 for Spain, 7:45 for Italy, final French figure at 7:50, final German one at 7:55, and final euro-zone number at 8:00. Spanish manufacturing improved to 50.9 points in March, and is expected to rise to 51.9 points. Italian manufacturing PMI improved to 47.8, while the French release edged lower to 49.7 points. The German and eurozone releases also posted declines, with scores of 44.5 and 47.8 points.
  12. Inflation: Tuesday, 9:00. Headline CPI came in at 1.4% in March, and is expected to rise to 1.6% in April. Core CPI dipped to 0.8% in March, but is forecast to rebound to 1.0% in April.

* All times are GMT

EUR/USD Technical analysis

Technical lines from top to bottom:

1.1515 was a high point at the end of January. 1.1435 was a low point at the beginning of February.

1.1390 was a stepping stone on the way up in late January and capped EUR/USD earlier. This is followed by 1.1345.

1.1290 is the next resistance line. Close by, 1.1270 was a double-bottom in December 2018.

1.1215 is next. 1.1119 (mentioned last week) was tested in support late in the week.

1.1025 was a cap back in May 2017.

1.0950 is the next support level.

1.0870 was a swing high in December 2017.

1.0820 is the final support line for now.

I remain bearish on EUR/USD

The U.S economy remains much stronger than that of the eurozone, which continues to be gripped by a slowdown. The ECB has no plans to raise interest rates in 2019, so the euro will be hard-pressed to reverse the current slide.

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About Author

Kenny Fisher - Senior Writer A native of Toronto, Canada, Kenneth worked for seven years in the marketing and trading departments at Bendix, a foreign exchange company in Toronto. Kenneth is also a lawyer, and has extensive experience as an editor and writer.

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