EUR/USD Forecast Jan. 18-22 2021 – Euro slides as US dollar shows strength

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EUR/USD suffered its worst week since October, with losses of 1.1%. There are five events on the calendar, including the ECB rate decision and PMIs. Here is an outlook at the highlights and an updated technical analysis for EUR/USD. 
Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence punched into positive territory in January, with a reading of 1.3. This was the first reading above zero since February. Eurozone Industrial Production jumped 2.5% in November, after a gain of 2.1% a month earlier. This easily beat the estimate of 0.2%. Headline inflation in France, the eurozone’s second-largest economy, posted a second straight gain of 0.2%.
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In the US, headline inflation improved to 0.4%, up from 0.2%. This was a 4-month high and could signal that inflation is at long last moving higher. Fed Chair Powell reiterated the Fed’s dovish stance, saying now is not the time to discuss exiting accommodative policy. Powell also pledged to give the markets plenty of notice before scaling back its massive QE program. The week ended with dismal retail sales numbers for December. The headline figure came in at -0.7%, which followed a -1.1% read a month earlier. Core retail sales fell to -1.4%, down from -0.9% beforehand. This was its lowest level since April.

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EUR/USD daily chart with support and resistance lines on it. Click to enlarge:

  1. German Final CPI: Tuesday, 7:00. Inflation has struggled in the eurozone’s largest economy, with declines for most of H2 of 2020. However, the forecast for December stands at 0.5%, which would be the strongest gain since June.
  2. German ZEW Economic Sentiment: Tuesday, 10:00.  The 6-month outlook for the German economy improved markedly in December, climbing from 39.0 to 55.0. The estimate for January stands at 55.1 points.
  3. Inflation Report: Wednesday, 10:00. Headline inflation has reeled off four straight declines, and this trend is projected to continue in  December, with an estimate of -0.3%. The core reading is expected to remain at 0.2%.
  4. ECB Rate Decision: Thursday, 12:45. The ECB minutes last week noted concern with low inflation and the high exchange rate, and policymakers could reiterate these concerns in the rate statement at the upcoming meeting. No change is expected in current monetary policy.
  5. PMIs: Friday, 8:15 in France, 8:30 in Germany, and 9:00 for the whole eurozone. Germany’s manufacturing sector continues to show strong expansion, with the December PMI coming in at 58.3. The estimate for January stands at 57.3. The eurozone Manufacturing PMI is expected in at 54.6, down from 55.2 beforehand. France came in at 51.1 and is forecast to dip to 50.3, just above the neutral 50-level. The services sector has been in contraction with Germany and the eurozone estimated at around the 45 level. France is expected to be stronger, with a forecast of 49.1 points.

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EUR/USD Technical analysis

Technical lines from top to bottom:

We start with resistance at 1.2328.

1.2224 has held in resistance since April 2018.

1.2156 has switched to a support level after strong gains by EUR/USD last week.

1.2099 is protecting the 1.21 line. It is an immediate support level.

1.1970 (mentioned last week) has provided support since early December.

1.1844 is next.

1.1768 is the final support line for now.

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I am bearish on EUR/USD

The euro enjoyed strong gains late in the year, as the US dollar turned into a punching bag. However, the greenback has rebounded in the New Year, and this upswing could continue this week.

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About Author

Kenny Fisher - Senior Writer A native of Toronto, Canada, Kenneth worked for seven years in the marketing and trading departments at Bendix, a foreign exchange company in Toronto. Kenneth is also a lawyer, and has extensive experience as an editor and writer.

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