EUR/USD Forecast Jan. 25-29 2021 – ECB stands pat

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EUR/USD reversed directions last week and showed gains of 0.76%. There are six events on the calendar. Here is an outlook at the highlights and an updated technical analysis for EUR/USD.

German CPI posted a respectable gain of 0.5% in December, confirming the initial estimate. However, eurozone CPI came in at -0.3% for a fourth straight month.  German ZeW Economic Sentiment jumped to 61.8, up from 55.0 beforehand. The eurozone indicator also improved, rising from 54.4 to 58.3.

The ECB maintained its interest rate and bond-buying levels at this week’s policy meeting. ECB President Lagarde acknowledged that Eurozone GDP for Q4 would likely be negative but said that growth was expected to rebound in 2021. PMI reports showed that the manufacturing sector remains well in expansionary territory, but the services sector is in a state of decline, with readings below the 50-level, which separates contraction from expansion.

In the US, the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index climbed to 26.5 in January, up strongly from the previous reading of 11.1 and well above expectations. Unemployment claims dropped to 900 thousand down from 965 thousand and below the forecast of 930 thousand. The week wrapped up with the Manufacturing PMI, which rose to 59.1, up from 56.5. This was its highest level since May 2007 and points to strong expansion.                                                                                                                                            .

EUR/USD daily chart with support and resistance lines on it. Click to enlarge:

  1. German ifo Business Climate: Tuesday, 7:00. Business confidence remains relatively strong in the eurozone’s largest economy. The indicator rose to 92.1 in December and is expected to give up some ground in January, with an estimate of 91.5.
  2. German GfK Consumer Climate: Wednesday, 7:00. Consumer confidence continues to weaken. The indicator dropped to-7.3 in December, down from -6.7 beforehand. The downward trend is expected to continue in January, with an estimate of -7.8.
  3. German Prelim CPI: Thursday, All Day. Germany’s CPI rebounded in December to 0.5%, up from -0.8% a month earlier. The first-estimate for January stands at 0.4%.
  4. French Flash GDP: Friday, 6:30. France’s economy soared by 18.2% in Q3, but is expected to reverse directions in Q4, with an estimate of -4.1%.
  5. German Unemployment Change: Friday, 8:55. Germany’s labor market has looked strong in H2 of 2020, reeling off six straight declines However unemployment is expected to go up in December, with an estimate of 10,000.
  6. Monetary Data: Friday, 9:00. M3 Money Supply is projected to remain at 11.0% in December. Private Loans is projected to edge up to 3.2%, after posting three straight gains of 3.1%.

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EUR/USD Technical analysis

Technical lines from top to bottom:

We start with resistance at 1.2484.

1.2328 is next.

1.2224 has held in resistance since April 2018.

1.2156 is an immediate support level.

1.2099 is protecting the 1.21 line.

1.1972 (mentioned last week) has provided support since early December.

1.1844 is the final support line for now.

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I am bearish on EUR/USD

The US dollar short squeeze appears to have run out of steam, so the euro is in a good position to make gains this week.

Further reading:

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About Author

Kenny Fisher - Senior Writer A native of Toronto, Canada, Kenneth worked for seven years in the marketing and trading departments at Bendix, a foreign exchange company in Toronto. Kenneth is also a lawyer, and has extensive experience as an editor and writer.

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