EUR/USD Forecast July 1-5 – Euro volatility subsides

0

EUR/USD ended the month of June on a quiet note, as the pair was almost unchanged last week. The upcoming week’s key events are service and manufacturing PMIs. Here is an outlook at the highlights and an updated technical analysis for EUR/USD.

In the U.S., the week was marked by mixed numbers. CB Consumer Confidence dropped to 121.5 in June, down sharply from 131.3 in May. This marked its lowest level since September 2017. First-quarter GDP was unrevised in the second estimate, with a strong gain of 3.1%. Durable goods orders disappointed with a decline of 1.3%, its third decline in four months. There was no movement from the Core PCE Price Index, the Federal Reserve’s favorite inflation gauge. The indicator remained stuck at 0.2%.

EUR/USD daily chart with support and resistance lines on it. Click to enlarge:

  1. Manufacturing PMIsMonday, 7:15 for Spain, 7:45 for Italy, final French figure at 7:50, final German one at 7:55, and final euro-zone number at 8:00. Spanish Manufacturing PMI slowed to 50.1 in May, showing stagnation. The Italian release remains stuck in contraction territory, coming in at 49.7. Both indicators are expected to indicate contraction in June. The French PMI improved to 50.6, and is expected to accelerate to 52.6. German Manufacturing PMI continues to show deep contraction and the May estimate stands at 45.4.The eurozone indicator is projected to show little change, with an estimate of 47.8.
  2. German Unemployment Change: Monday, 7:55. Unemployment rolls usually post declines, but jumped by 60 thousand in April. The estimate for May stands at one thousand.
  3. Monetary data: Monday, 8:00. M3 Money Supply has been pointing to stronger annual growth, as readings have improved for three straight months. The April reading came in at 4.7%, but is expected to edge lower to 4.6% in May. Private Loans grew by 3.4% in April, its strongest gain since February 2009. The upward trend is expected to continue, with an estimate of 3.5% in May.
  4. PPI: Tuesday, 9:00. The Producer Price Index has been struggling, with two successive declines. Better news is predicted for the May release, with an estimate of 0.1%.
  5. Services PMI’s: Wednesday, 8:15 for Spain, 8:45 for Italy, final French figure at 8:50, final German one at 8:55, and final euro-zone number at 9:00. Services sector numbers have generally been better than those in the manufacturing one. Spanish Services PMI slowed to 52.8 in April, marking an 8-month low. The forecast for May stands at 52.7. Italian Services PMI fell to 50.0, which separates contraction from expansion. No change is expected in the upcoming release. The French PMI is expected to improve to 53.1, up from 51.5 in April. German Services PMI has been pointing to strong expansion and is expected to rise to 55.6. The Eurozone index edged up to 52.9 in April, and the May estimate stands at 53.4.
  6. Retail Sales: Thursday, 9:00. In April, retail sales declined by 0.4%, its weakest reading in four months. The markets are predicting a rebound in May, with an estimate of 0.4%.
  7. German Factory Orders: Friday, 6:00. Factory Orders have recovered after a string of declines, posting two successive gains. The April release came in at 0.3%. However, the estimate for May is -0.1%.
  8. French Trade Balance: Friday, 6:45. France suffers from a chronic trade deficit. The trade deficit improved to EUR 5.0 billion in April, down from 5.3 billion a month earlier. The trade deficit is expected to narrow to 4.8 billion in May.

EUR/USD Technical analysis

Technical lines from top to bottom:

We start with resistance at 1.1751.

1.1620 has held in resistance since early October. 1.1570 is next.

1.1515 was a high point at the end of January. 1.1435 was a low point at the beginning of February.

1.1390 was a stepping stone on the way up in late January and capped EUR/USD earlier. 1.1345 remained relevant this week.

1.1290 is next. Close by, 1.1270 was a double-bottom in December 2018.

1.1215 has been providing support since mid-June.

1.1119 (mentioned last week) has held in support since the end of May.

1.1025 was a cap back in May 2017.

1.0950 is the final support level for now.

I am bearish on EUR/USD

The U.S. economy continues to perform well, while economic conditions in the eurozone remain cloudy. The Brexit conundrum is yet to be solved, and manufacturing in the eurozone has been hit hard by the U.S.-China trade spat.

Follow us on Sticher or iTunes

Further reading:

Safe trading!

Get the 5 most predictable currency pairs

About Author

Kenny Fisher - Senior Writer A native of Toronto, Canada, Kenneth worked for seven years in the marketing and trading departments at Bendix, a foreign exchange company in Toronto. Kenneth is also a lawyer, and has extensive experience as an editor and writer.