EUR/USD Forecast Nov. 16-20 – Euro levels off, inflation next

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EUR/USD settled down last week and posted slight losses. There are four events in the upcoming week. Here is an outlook at the highlights and an updated technical analysis for EUR/USD. 
German ZEW Economic Sentiment sank to 39.0 in November, down from 56.1 beforehand. This marked the lowest reading since March. The all-eurozone release also faltered badly. German CPI posted a small gain of 0.1% in October, ending three straight declines. The week ended on a positive note. Eurozone GDP bounced back in Q3 with a gain of 12.6%, after coming in at -12.1%. Employment Change rose by 0.9% in Q3, after a reading of -2.8%
In the US, consumer inflation softened, as the headline and core readings both fell to 0.0%, down from 0.2% beforehand. There was positive news on the employment front, as unemployment claims fell to 709 thousand, down from 751 thousand in the previous release. The week wrapped up with UoM Consumer Sentiment, which fell from 81.2 to 77.0, its lowest level in three months.

EUR/USD daily chart with support and resistance lines on it. Click to enlarge:

  1. ECB Financial Stability Review: Monday, 9:00. This report, which is released twice a year, provides details about the stability of the financial system. Investors will be looking for any hints regarding future monetary policy.
  2. Inflation Report: Wednesday, 10:00. Inflation remains low in the eurozone, reflective of weak economic conditions. The headline figure came in at -0.3% in September, a second straight decline. Another contraction is projected for October, with an estimate of 0.3%. Core CPI is estimated at 0.2%. Both readings are expected to confirm the initial reads from earlier in the month.
  3. Current Account: Thursday, 9:00. The eurozone continues to post current account surpluses. In August, the surplus reached EUR19.9 billion, up from EUR16.6 billion. Will the upswing continue in September?
  4. Consumer Confidence: Friday, 15:00. Consumer confidence remains mired in negative territory, as consumers remain apprehensive about the economy. The indicator edged down to -16 in October, its lowest level since April. The downturn is expected to continue in November, with a forecast of -18.

EUR/USD Technical analysis

Technical lines from top to bottom:

We start with resistance at 1.2136.

1.2046 is an important monthly line of resistance.

1.1936 is next.

1.1877 remains relevant.

1.1744 is the first line of support.

1.1648 is next.

1.1573 (mentioned last week) has provided support since July.

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I am bearish on EUR/USD

The eurozone economy remains weak, and if the EU fails to reach a deal with the UK over Brexit, the euro could lose ground.

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About Author

Kenny Fisher - Senior Writer A native of Toronto, Canada, Kenneth worked for seven years in the marketing and trading departments at Bendix, a foreign exchange company in Toronto. Kenneth is also a lawyer, and has extensive experience as an editor and writer.