EUR/USD Forecast Nov. 9-13 – Euro comes close to 1.19

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EUR/USD continues to show strong volatility and gained 1.96% last week. There are five events in the upcoming week, including manufacturing and services PMIs. Here is an outlook at the highlights and an updated technical analysis for EUR/USD. 
Eurozone Manufacturing PMIs were within expectations, showing expansion across the board. Germany’s PMI was particularly strong, at 58.2 points. The services sector continues to show contraction, with readings below the neutral 50-level. Still, the contraction in Germany was negligible, with a reading of 49.5 points. German industrial data fell short of expectations. Factory Orders came in at 0.5%, off the estimate of 2.1%. Industrial Production rebounded with a gain of 1.6%, but this fell short of the forecast of 2.6%.
In the US, ISM Manufacturing PMI was stronger than expected. The index climbed from 55.4 to 59.3, above the forecast of 55.6 points. The Federal Reserve didn’t make any changes, but hinted at more easing in December. US nonfarm payrolls slowed to 638 thousand, but exceeded the estimate of 595 thousand. Wage growth remained steady at 0.1%, while the unemployment rate dropped from sharply to 6.9%, down from 7.9%. The Ivey PMI improved to 54.5, up from 54.3 points.

EUR/USD daily chart with support and resistance lines on it. Click to enlarge:

  1. German Trade Balance: Monday, 7:00. Germany’s trade surplus took an unexpected drop in August, falling from EUR 18.0 billion to 15.7 billion. The surplus is expected to rebound to EUR 17.2 billion in September.
  2. Sentix Investor Confidence: Monday, 9:30. Investors remain pessimistic about economic conditions in the eurozone, and the indicator has been mired in negative territory since February. Analysts are braced for a sharp downturn in November, with a forecast of -15.0 points.
  3. German ZEW Economic Sentiment: Tuesday, 10:00. The mood in Germany is gloomy, as the indicator fell sharply in October, from 77.4 to 56.1. The downswing is expected to continue, with a forecast of 45.0 points.
  4. German Final CPI: Thursday, 7:00. German CPI has posted three straight declines, pointing to weak economic activity in Germany. A weak gain of 0.1% is expected in October.
  5. Industrial Production: Thursday, 10:00. Industrial production has been steadily falling in recent months and dropped to just 0.7% in August. The forecast for September stands at 0.9%.
  6. GDP: Friday, 10:00. After a dismal Q2, when the eurozone contracted by 12.1%, a strong rebound is expected in Q3, with a forecast of 12.7%. If the actual reading is within expectations, the euro could receive a boost.

EUR/USD Technical analysis

Technical lines from top to bottom:

We start with resistance at 1.2136.

1.2046 is an important monthly line of resistance.

1.1936 is next.

1.1877 is an immediate resistance line.

1.1744 is providing support.

1.1648 is next.

1.1573 (mentioned last week) has provided support since July.

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I am neutral on EUR/USD

The euro had an excellent week, but this was a result of US broad weakness rather than strength in the euro. The currency’s volatility could continue, but it’s unclear which direction it will take this week.

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About Author

Kenny Fisher - Senior Writer A native of Toronto, Canada, Kenneth worked for seven years in the marketing and trading departments at Bendix, a foreign exchange company in Toronto. Kenneth is also a lawyer, and has extensive experience as an editor and writer.