EUR/USD Forecast Nov. 23-27 – Euro continues to drift

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EUR/USD showed limited movement throughout the week. There are seven events in the upcoming week, including PMIs and German GDP. Here is an outlook at the highlights and an updated technical analysis for EUR/USD. 
Eurozone inflation remains weak, reflective of poor economic conditions in the eurozone. Headline CPI declined by 0.3%, while core CPI gained 0.2%. Both figures confirmed the initial readings. The eurozone current account surplus jumped to EUR25.2 billion, up from EUR18.1 billion. This was the largest surplus since March.
In the US, the Empire State Manufacturing Index fell from 10.5 to 6.3, as the rate of expansion slowed for a second straight month. The Philly Fed Manufacturing Index fell to 26.3, down from 32.3 points. Retail sales fell sharply in October, which weighed on the US dollar. Headline retail sales fell from 1.9% to 0.3%. This was the weakest gain since April. The core reading slowed to 0.2%, down from 1.5% beforehand.

EUR/USD daily chart with support and resistance lines on it. Click to enlarge:

  1. PMIs: Monday, 7:15 in France, 7:30 in Germany, and 8:00 for the whole eurozone. German and eurozone manufacturing PMIs continue to point to expansion, with readings above the neutral 50-level However, the October readings are expected to fall. The estimates are 56.0 for Germany, 53.2 for the eurozone and 50.2 for France. The services sector has been in contraction and the October readings are expected to drop even further. The forecasts for Germany is 46.1, for the eurozone 42.2 and for France 39.2.
  2. German Final GDP: Tuesday, 10:00. After a decline of -9,7% in Q2, analysts expect the German economy to rebound in Q3, with an estimate of 8.2%.
  3. German Ifo Business Climate: Tuesday, 12:00. Business Confidence remains high, but has been losing ground. The indicator slowed from 93.4 to 92.7 in October and is projected to dip to 90.5 in November.
  4. German GfK Consumer Climate: Thursday, 10:00. The German consumer remains pessimistic about economic conditions, and this is reflected in the indicator, which has posted six straight declines. Another decline is projected for November, with an indication of -4.9 points.
  5. Monetary Data: Thursday, 12:00. M3 Money Supply rose to an annual growth rate of 10.4%, up from 9.5% beforehand. Private Loans edged up to 3.1% in August y/y. Money Supply is projected to remain at 10.4%, and we await the data for Private Loans.
  6. ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts: Thursday, 15:00. The ECB will release the minutes of its October policy meeting. Investors will be looking for clues whether the ECB is planning additional easing before the end of the year.
  7. French GDP: Friday, 10:45. The second-largest economy in the eurozone was hit hard by Covid-19, as GDP plunged by 13.8%. Analysts expect a sharp rebound in Q3, with a forecast of 18.2%.

EUR/USD Technical analysis

Technical lines from top to bottom:

We start with resistance at 1.2136.

1.2046 is an important monthly line of resistance.

1.1936 is next.

1.1877 is an immediate resistance line.

1.1744 is the first line of support.

1.1648 is next.

1.1573 (mentioned last week) has provided support since July.

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I am bearish on EUR/USD

The US dollar has been under pressure of late, but the US economy continues to perform better than the eurozone, so investors could change their tune and show some love for the greenback this week.

Further reading:

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About Author

Kenny Fisher - Senior Writer A native of Toronto, Canada, Kenneth worked for seven years in the marketing and trading departments at Bendix, a foreign exchange company in Toronto. Kenneth is also a lawyer, and has extensive experience as an editor and writer.