EUR/USD Forecast Oct. 5-9 – Eurozone deflation concerns persist

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EUR/USD reversed directions last week and recorded gains of 0.7%. The pair is trading just above the 1.17 level. There are seven events in the upcoming week. Here is an outlook at the highlights and an updated technical analysis for EUR/USD. 
Low inflation continues to be a headache for eurozone policymakers, as September data headed downwards. Germany’s CPI dropped by 0.2% in September, its third consecutive decline.  Eurozone inflation fell to -0.3%, its lowest level in over four years, from -0.2% a month earlier. The core reading dropped to 0.4%, down from 0.2%. This raises pressure on the ECB to add further stimulus.
German Retail Sales climbed 3.1% in August, blowing the forecast of 0.4% out of the water. This follows two straight declines. On the manufacturing front, German and eurozone Manufacturing PMIs continued to point to expansion in September, with readings of 56.4 and 53.7, respectively. Spain’s unemployment rolls fell by 26.3 thousand, surprising analysts, who had projected a gain of 59.5 thousand.
In the US, the Conference Board Consumer Confidence jumped to 101.8 in September, up from 86.3. This easily beat the forecast of 90.0 points. Third-estimate GDP for the second quarter was upwardly revised to -31.4%, up from -31.7%. On the manufacturing front, the ISM Manufacturing PMI remained well in expansionary territory, with a reading of 55.4 points, down slightly from 56.0. The neutral 50-mark separates contraction from expansion. Job growth slowed sharply in September, as Nonfarm Payrolls fell to 661 thousand, down from 1.37 million beforehand. This was much weaker than the estimate of 900 thousand. Wage growth dropped from 0.4% to 0.1%, missing the forecast of 0.5%. Manufacturing continues to expand, as second-estimate Manufacturing PMI came in at 54.1, down slightly from the initial estimate of 54.3 points.

EUR/USD daily chart with support and resistance lines on it. Click to enlarge:

  1. Service PMIs: Monday, 7:15 for Spain, 7:45 for Italy, final French figure at 7:50, final German one at 7:55, and final euro-zone number at 8:00. The services sector is expected to continue to indicate a contraction in September, with readings below the neutral 50-level. German and eurozone second estimates are projected to confirm the initial readings, at 49.1 and 47.6, respectively.
  2. Sentix Investor Confidence: Monday, 8:30. Investors remain pessimistic, as the confidence indicator has been mired in negative territory. Still, the indicator has been steadily moving closer to zero, and improved to -8.0 in September, up from -13.4 points. The forecast for October stands at -9.2 points.
  3. Retail Sales: Monday, 9:00. Retail sales are the primary gauge of consumer spending. In July, retail sales disappointed with a reading of -1.3%, well below the estimate of 1.3%. Analysts expect a rebound in August, with a forecast of 2.4%.
  4. German Factory Orders: Tuesday, 6:00. After recording double-digit declines and gains in recent months, the July reading came in at 2.8%. The August estimate stands at 3.0%.
  5. German Industrial Production: Wednesday, 6:00. Industrial Production slowed to 1.2% in July, down from 8.9%. A gain of 1.5% is projected for August.
  6. ECB Monetary Policy Meetings Accounts: Thursday, 11:30. The ECB will release the minutes of its September policy meeting. Investors will be dialed in, looking to see if policymakers discussed the need for additional flexibility.

EUR/USD Technical analysis

Technical lines from top to bottom:

We start with resistance at 1.2057, which was an important resistance line last week.

1.1974 is protecting the symbolic 1.20 level.

1.1877 is next.

1.1744 has weakened in resistance.

1.1648 is the first support level.

1.1573 (mentioned last week) follows.

1.1470 has held in support since July.

1.1328 is the final support level for now.

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I am bearish on EUR/USD

The ECB is under pressure to add more stimulus, which would put downward pressure on the euro. With the eurozone economy continuing to struggle, the euro is not particularly attractive to investors.

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About Author

Kenny Fisher - Senior Writer A native of Toronto, Canada, Kenneth worked for seven years in the marketing and trading departments at Bendix, a foreign exchange company in Toronto. Kenneth is also a lawyer, and has extensive experience as an editor and writer.