EUR/USD Forecast Sep. 28-Oct. 2 – Euro falls to 8-week low

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EUR/USD suffered its worst week since March, as the pair declined by 1.7 percent. The pair is trading just above 1.16, its lowest level since late July. There are five events in the upcoming week, including manufacturing and services PMIs. Here is an outlook at the highlights and an updated technical analysis for EUR/USD. 
German GfK Consumer Climate remains in negative territory, as consumers are nervous about the economy. The indicator showed little change in September, at -1.8 points. Eurozone and German Manufacturing PMIs improved in September, with readings of 53.7 and 53.6, respectively. A reading above 50 points to expansion. However, Eurozone and German Services PMIs indicated contraction, with readings of 47.6 and 49.1, respectively. German Ifo Business Climate accelerated for a fifth straight month, rising from 92.6 to 93.4 in September.
In the US, Federal Reserve Chair Powell had a busy week testifying on Capitol Hill. Powell reiterated that the Fed was using all available tools to support the budding economic recovery. He also called on Congress to provide additional fiscal stimulus.The US Flash Manufacturing PMI for September came in at 53.5, almost unchanged from 53.4 a month earlier. Importantly, the reading beat the estimate of 52.5 points. The index has been in expansion territory for four straight months, with readings above the 50-level, which separates expansion from contraction. On the services front, Flash Services PMI came in at 54.6, just shy of the previous release of 54.8 points. The respectable reading points to a solid rise in business activity, another sign that the economic recovery is strengthening.

EUR/USD daily chart with support and resistance lines on it. Click to enlarge:

  1. German Prelim CPI: Tuesday, All Day. Inflation remains weak in the eurozone’s number one economy, with CPI registering two straight declines. The estimate for September stands at a flat 0.0%.
  2. German Retail Sales: Wednesday, 6:00. Retail sales have been struggling, with only gain in the past five months. The July reading came in at -0.9%, but analysts are expecting a gain of 0.4% in August.
  3. French Prelim CPI: Wednesday, 6:45. Inflation in the eurozone’s second-largest economy remains weak. CPI declined by 0.1% in August and is expected in at -0.4% in September.
  4. Manufacturing PMIs: Thursday, 7:15 in Spain, 7:45 in Italy, 7:50 in France, 7:55 in Germany and 8:00 for the whole eurozone. German and eurozone PMIs are expected to show expansion, with estimates of 56.6 and 53.7, respectively. The Spanish release is projected to rise to 50.5, up from 49.9 points. This is just above the neutral 50-level, which separates expansion from contraction. The French PMI is expected at 50.9 and Italy at 53.6 points.
  5. Eurozone Unemployment Rate: Thursday, 9:00. The bloc’s unemployment rate has been steadily increasing and reached 7.9% in August. The upward trend is expected to continue in September, with an estimate of 8.1%.
  6. Inflation: Friday, 9:00. The specter of deflation remains a headache for ECB policymakers. The headline reading came in at -0.2% in August and is projected at -0.1% in September. Core CPI came in at 0.4% in August and the forecast stands at 0.5% for September.

EUR/USD Technical analysis

Technical lines from top to bottom:

We start with resistance at 1.1974, which is protecting the symbolic 1.20 level.

1.1877 is next.

1.1744 has switched to resistance after sharp losses by EUR/USD last week.

1.1648 is an immediate resistance line.

1.1573 (mentioned last week) is the first line of support.

1.1470 has held in support since July.

1.1328 is the final support level for now.

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I am bearish on EUR/USD

The US dollar is showing broad strength and the upward trend could continue this week. Covid-19 has shown a resurgence in Europe, and the Brexit bickering could further weigh on the euro.

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Kenny Fisher - Senior Writer A native of Toronto, Canada, Kenneth worked for seven years in the marketing and trading departments at Bendix, a foreign exchange company in Toronto. Kenneth is also a lawyer, and has extensive experience as an editor and writer.