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  • The bias remains bullish despite the last drop.
  • Only a new lower low activates a larger drop.
  • The US inflation should bring sharp movements tomorrow.

The EUR/USD price rebounded in the short term and is now trading at 1.0897. After its temporary sell-off, new bullish momentum could be expected.

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The bias is bullish, so the price should try to come back higher, erasing the minor losses. Yesterday, the US Final Wholesale Inventories rose by 0.1% compared to the 0.2% growth estimated.

Today, the Eurozone Retail Sales indicator reported a 0.8% drop, as expected, while Sentix Investor Confidence came in better than expected at -8.7 points versus the -11.7 points expected.

Tomorrow, the US economic data should bring sharp movements. The CPI m/m may report a 0.2% growth in March. CPI y/y could register a 5.2% growth, while Core CPI m/m is expected to increase by 0.4% in the last month versus the 0.5% growth in the previous reporting period.

In addition, the FOMC Meeting Minutes and the BOC could also have a big impact on the USD. The PPI, Core PPI, Retail Sales, Core Retail Sales, Unemployment Claims, and Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment also present high-impact events.

EUR/USD Price Technical Analysis: Rising Wedge

EUR/USD price
EUR/USD price hourly chart

As you can see on the hourly chart, the rate escaped from the Rising Wedge pattern signaling a downside reversal. Now, it has turned to the upside, and it could try to test and retest the broken uptrend line and the upper median line (UML) of the descending pitchfork.

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These are seen as upside obstacles, so false breakouts may announce that the rally is over and that the sellers could take the lead again. A valid breakout above the upper median line (UML) should invalidate the Rising Wedge and could announce an upside continuation.

Technically, a new lower low could activate the downside reversal pattern if the rate drops and closes below 1.0831.

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