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EUR/USD  has edged higher on Tuesday, as the pair  trades  just shy of the 1.38 line  in the  European session. In economic news, Federal Reserve chair Janet Yellen surprised the markets when she said that the US economy would require monetary stimulus for some time.  It’s a busy day in the Eurozone. PMI releases met expectations, while German Unemployment Claims beat the estimate for a fourth straight time. There was more good news, as the Eurozone Unemployment Rate dropped below the  12.0% rate for the first time since February 2013. Today’s highlight in the US is ISM Manufacturing PMI.

Here is a quick update on the technical situation, indicators, and market sentiment that moves euro/dollar.

EUR/USD Technical

  • EUR/USD  was listless in the Asian session.  The  pair  has edged upwards  in European trading and is testing resistance at 1.38.

Current range: 1.3740 to 1.38.

Further levels in both directions:     EURUSD Daily Forecast Apr.1st


  • Below: 1.3740, 1.37, 1.3650 and 1.3560, 1.3515 and 13450.
  • Above: 1.38, 1.3830, 1.3895, 1.3940, and 1.40
  • 1.3740 is an important support line.  The round number of 1.37 follows.
  • On the upside, the pair is testing the 1.38 line.  1.3830 follows.

EUR/USD Fundamentals

  • 7:15  Spanish Manufacturing PMI. Exp. 52.9, actual 52.8 points.
  • 7:45  Italian Manufacturing PMI. Exp. 52.2, actual 52.4 points.
  • 7:55 German Unemployment Change. Exp. -9K, actual -12K.
  • 8:00  Eurozone  Final Manufacturing PMI. Exp. 53.0, actual 53.0 points.
  • 8:00 Italian Monthly Unemployment Rate. Exp. 12.9%, actual 13.0%.
  • 9:00 Eurozone Unemployment Rate. Exp. 12.0%., actual 11.9%.
  • Day 1 – ECOFIN Meetings.
  • 13:45 US Final Manufacturing PMI. Exp. 55.9 points.
  • 14:00 US ISM Manufacturing PMI. Exp. 54.2 points.
  • 14:00 US Construction Spending. Exp. 0.2%.
  • 14:00 US IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism. Exp. 46.3 points.
  • 14:00 US ISM Manufacturing Prices. Exp. 59.2 points.
  • All Day – US Total Vehicle Sales. Exp. 15.8M.

*All times are GMT For more events and lines, see the  Euro to dollar forecast.

EUR/USD Sentiment

  • German Unemployment Change improves: German  data continues to look solid.  February’s  German Unemployment Change continues to show improvement, as the indicator dropped to -12 thousand, down from -14 thousand a month earlier. German Consumer Climate  and  Business Climate also looked sharp in February, pointing to stronger confidence in the German economy, the largest in the Eurozone.
  • Yellen says US economy has long way to go: On Monday, Fed chair Janet Yellen said that “considerable slack” remained in the US economy  and this would require further stimulus measures. Currently, the Fed is purchasing $55 billion in assets under its QE scheme. There have been three tapers to QE so far, and Yellen plans to wind up the program in the fall, provided that the US economy does not run into any serious turbulence. At the same time, the Federal Reserve has stated that it has no plans to raise interest rates until sometime in 2015.
  • ECB mulls negative rates, QE: Last week, German Bundesbank head Jens Weidmann gave support to a negative deposit rate in order to respond to the strong euro. He also raised the possibility of a QE scheme for the ECB, whereby the central bank would purchase loans or other assets in order to fight deflation, which continues to suffer from low inflation. Mario Draghi also spoke on the issue, saying that the ECB is ready to act if inflation slips further.
  • Ukraine gets critical cash: Ukraine’s economy  is in shambles  as a result of the four-month political crisis. Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk  acknowledged that the  country is on the edge of bankruptcy, and GDP could drop by 3% this year.  However, help is on the way. The IMF is set to sign a two-year loan of up to $18 billion, and the EU has offered a package of EUR 11 billion. Ukraine has already received two bailouts from the IMF since 2008, and will have to implement budget cuts and other measures in order to receive the new package from the IMF.