EUR/USD April 17 – Euro Firm After Yellen Comments

EUR/USD  has moved higher on Thursday, as the euro continues to take advantage of dovish comments by Fed chair Janet Yellen on Wednesday. The pair  is trading in the mid-1.38 range  in the European session. Today’s sole Eurozone release, German PPI, declined last month, as Eurozone inflation indicators remain weak. In the US, we’ll get a look at Unemployment Claims and the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index later in the day.

Here is a quick update on the technical situation, indicators, and market sentiment that moves euro/dollar.

EUR/USD Technical

• EUR/USD remained just above the key 1.3830 line in the Asian session, and has moved higher in European trading.

Current range: 1.3830 to 1.3894

Further levels in both directions:  

• Below: 1.3830, 1.38, 1.3740, 1.37, 1.3650 and 1.3580.
• Above: 1.3895, 1.3964 and 1.40.
• 1.3894 is under pressure as the euro moves upwards.
• 1.3830 works as a clear separator.

EUR/USD Fundamentals

• 6:00 German PPI. Exp. +0.1%, actual -0.3%.
• 12:30 US Unemployment Claims. Exp. 316K.
• 14:00 US  Philly Fed  Manufacturing Index.  Exp. 9.6 points.  See how to trade this event with GBP/USD.
• 14:30 US Natural Gas Storage. Exp. 35B.

*All times are GMT

For more events and lines, see the  Euro to dollar forecast.

EUR/USD Sentiment

• Weak Eurozone inflation continues: There doesn’t appear to be an end in site for persistently weak inflation numbers in the Eurozone. On Thursday, German PPI posted a decline of -0.3%, its worst showing since December 2012.  Final inflation data for March came out slightly lower than expected. While headline inflation was confirmed at 0.5%, the lowest since 2009, core inflation was downgraded to 0.7%, matching the low level seen in late 2013, which was the post crisis low. The weakness capped the recovery of the euro and raises the pressure towards the initial April figures. The ECB has downplayed the danger of deflation, but Mario Draghi may have to abandon this “head in the sand” approach, which is weighing  heavily  on the Eurozone  economy.
• US inflation rises: The Eurozone is having a tough time with a lack of inflation, but in the US, it’s a different story. US core inflation actually rose to 1.7%, exactly in Goldilocks territory: no deflation danger and quite far from heating inflation, despite a bloated balance sheet at the Federal Reserve.
• Is the US enjoying a spring bounce?:  Recent job figures have been OK  and  retail sales exceeded expectations. However, markets are not 100% convinced that the US is bouncing back after the harsh winter. Perhaps we will hear more about it from Fed Chair Yellen. She didn’t make any monetary policy related comments yesterday, although her remarks about some problems in the US economy sent the dollar broadly lower.
• Ukraine crisis heats up:  The escalation in eastern Ukraine is grabbing the headlines, with the government in Kiev acting against pro-Russian rebels, despite ominous warnings from Moscow.  Secretary  of State Kerry is to meet with his Russian  counterpart, but it’s doubtful  that a quick breakthrough will be achieved. The gas supply from Russia to Europe is in danger, and this could have a significant impact on market movement.

More:  Any version of euro-zone QE is going have a limited effect