EUR/USD has edged higher on Tuesday, as the pair trades in the mid-1.35 range. There was good news out of Spain, as Spanish Employment Change posted a slight decline, surprising the markets. In the US, the ISM Manufacturing PMI climbed to its highest level since April 2011. There are no major releases out of the US on Tuesday.
Here is a quick update on the technical situation, indicators, and market sentiment that moves euro/dollar.
EUR/USD Technical
- EUR/USD edged higher in the Asian session and consolidated at 1.3549. The pair continues to move higher in the European session.
- Current range: 1.3570 to 1.3650.
Further levels in both directions: 
- Below: 1.3570, 1.3500, 1.3440, 1.34, 1.3320, 1.3240, 1.3175, 1.31 and 1.3050.
- Above: 1.3650, 1.3710, 1.3800 and 1.3870.
- 1.3570 is providing support. The round number of 1.3500 is stronger.
- 1.3650 is the next line of resistance. This is followed by 1.3710.
EUR/USD Fundamentals
- 8:00 Spanish Unemployment Change. Exp. 49.3K, Actual -2.5K.
- 10:00 Eurozone PPI. Exp. -0.1%.
- 15:00 US IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism. Exp. 43.2 points.
- All Day – US Total Vehicle Sales. Exp. 15.8M.
*All times are GMT
For more events and lines, see the Euro to dollar forecast.
EUR/USD Sentiment
- Spanish Unemployment Change drops: For the first time in November, Spanish unemployment claims dropped. The key indicator posted a decline of 2.5 thousand, surprising the markets, which had expected a gain of 49.3 thousand. This was the first drop since July. Traditionally, the summer months show a decline due to the influx of tourists, so the November release was a pleasant surprise. Now the big question is will the unemployment rate, which stands at a staggering 26%, will follow suit and improve.
- Eurozone PMIs a mix: Spanish Manufacturing PMI dipped to 48.6 points, down from 50.9 last month. This marked the first contraction we’ve seen in the manufacturing sector in six months. There was better news from the Italian and Eurozone Manufacturing PMIs, both of which rose slightly and met expectations. The Italian release came in at 51.4 points, while the Eurozone PMI hit 51.6 points. The euro has responded negatively, dropping below the 1.36 line.
- Eurozone inflation up, unemployment down: There was some good news on Friday, as Eurozone inflation and unemployment figures beat the estimates. Eurozone CPI rose to 0.9%, edging above the estimate of 0.8%. However, inflation is well below the ECB target of 2.0%, so we could see the ECB take monetary action at its policy meeting later this week. The Unemployment Rate dipped to 12.1%, down from 12.2% a month earlier.
- Will ECB again lower rates?: With inflation and growth remaining weak in the Eurozone, the ECB may make a monetary move later this week. It could opt to cut the benchmark rate for a second straight month, or lower the deposit rate, which currently stands at 0.0%. However, a move into negative territory would represent unchartered territory and could have negative consequences for the economy. If the ECB decides to reduce the deposit rate, we could see a “mini cut” of less than 0.25%. The markets are expecting the Bank to hold the current benchmark rate of 0.25%, but just last month the markets were caught by surprise as the ECB cut the rate from 0.50%.
- Markets eye US employment numbers: The markets will be keeping a close eye on this week’s US employment releases, as the Fed is likely to take action and taper QE early in 2014 if employment numbers continue to improve. Unemployment Claims have looked sharp for the past two releases, and if the Non-Farm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate look solid this week, the US dollar could gain ground against the euro.
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