EUR/USD – Dec. 4 – Little Movement After Mixed Eurozone

EUR/USD  is  showing little change  in Wednesday trading, as the pair trades in the high-1.35 range.  In economic news, Spain continues to release strong data, as  Services PMI pushed above the 50-point  level in  November. However, Italian Services  PMI sagged, dropping to a five-month low. Eurozone Retail Sales will be released later in the day. After a slow start to the week, there’s plenty of action out of the US on Wednesday, with  four key events – ADP Non-Farm Employment Change, Trade Balance, ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI and Home Sales.

Here is a quick update on the technical situation, indicators, and market sentiment that moves euro/dollar.

EUR/USD Technical

• EUR/USD  was steady  in the  Asian  trading and edged  lower late in the session.  The pair consolidated at 1.3570.  The pair  is steady in the European session.
• Current range: 1.3570 to 1.3650.

Further levels in both directions:  

• Below: 1.3570, 1.3500, 1.3440, 1.34, 1.3320, 1.3240, 1.3175, 1.31 and  1.3050.
• Above: 1.3650, 1.3710, 1.3800 and 1.3870.
• On the downside, 1.3570  is under pressure. The round number of 1.3500 is stronger.
• 1.3650 is the next line of resistance. This is followed by 1.3710.

EUR/USD Fundamentals

• 8:15 Spanish Services PMI. Exp. 50.7, Actual 51.5 points.
• 8:45  Italian Services PMI. Exp. 51.2, Actual  47.2 points.
• 9:00  Eurozone Final  Services PMI. Exp. 50.9 points.
• 10:00 Eurozone Retail Sales. Exp. 0.2%.
• 10:00 Eurozone Revised GDP. Exp. 0.1%.
• 13:15 US ADP Non-Farm Employment Change. Exp. 172K.  See how to trade this event with USD/JPY.
• 13:30 US Trade Balance. Exp. -40.3B.
• 15:00 US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI. Exp. 55.4 points.
• 15:00 US New Home Sales. Exp. 432K.
• Sep. Data – US New Home Sales. Exp. 427K.
• 15:30 US Crude Oil Inventories. Exp. -0.5M
• 16:20 President Barak Obama Speaks.
• 19:00  US Beige Book.

*All times are GMT

For more events and lines, see the Euro to dollar forecast.

EUR/USD Sentiment

• Spanish Services PMI Jumps: Spanish Services PMI looked sharp, as the index climbed to 51.5 points, up from 49.6 the month before. This was the PMI’s highest level in over six years. Italian Services PMI took the opposite route, dropping to 47.2 points, compared to 50.5 in the previous reading. The Eurozone Manufacturing PMI remained steady, coming in at a healthy 51.6 points. PMI data is an important gauge of economic activity and can affect the movement of EUR/USD.
• Spanish Unemployment Change drops: For the first time in the month of November, Spanish unemployment claims dropped. The key indicator posted a decline of 2.5 thousand, surprising the markets, which had expected a gain of 49.3 thousand. This was the first drop since July. Traditionally, the summer months show a decline due to the influx of tourists, so the November release was a pleasant surprise. Now the big question is will the unemployment rate, which stands at a staggering 26%, will follow suit and improve.
• Eurozone inflation up, unemployment down: There was some good news on Friday, as Eurozone inflation  and  unemployment figures beat the estimates.  Eurozone CPI rose to 0.9%, edging above the estimate of 0.8%. However, inflation is well below the ECB target of 2.0%, so we could see the ECB take monetary action at its policy meeting  on Thursday.  The Unemployment Rate dipped to 12.1%, down from 12.2% a month earlier.
• Will ECB make a move?: With inflation  and growth remaining weak  in the Eurozone, the  ECB could well take  monetary action  at a policy meeting on Thursday. The Bank  could  opt  to cut the benchmark  rate for a second straight month, or  lower the deposit rate, which  currently stands at 0.0%. However, a move into negative territory would represent unchartered territory and could have negative consequences for the economy. If the ECB decides to reduce the deposit rate, we could see a “mini cut” of less than 0.25%. The markets are expecting the Bank to hold the current benchmark rate of 0.25%, but just last month the markets were caught by surprise as the ECB cut the rate from 0.50% in an effort to boost weak economic activity.
• Markets eye ADP Non-Farm Payrolls: The markets will be keeping a close eye on this week’s US employment releases, stating with the ADP Non-Farm Payrolls later on Wednesday. If US employment numbers continue to improve, the Federal Reserve  is likely  to  take  action  and taper  QE early next year. Unemployment Claims have looked sharp for the past two releases, and if the Non-Farm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate look solid   this week,  the US dollar could gain ground against the euro.