EUR/USD May 14 – Euro Shrugs off Weak Inflation,
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EUR/USD May 14 – Euro Shrugs off Weak Inflation,

EUR/USD is showing little movement, as the pair trades in the low-1.37 range in Wednesday’s  European session. On the release front, Eurozone numbers were disappointing. Inflation numbers out of France and Germany weakened in April, and Eurozone Industrial Production posted another decline. Later in the day,  the  president of the German central bank,  Jens Weidmann, will speak in Berlin. In the US, today’s  major release  is the Producer Price Index.

Here is a quick update on the technical situation, indicators, and market sentiment that moves euro/dollar.

EUR/USD Technical

  • EUR/USD was very quiet in the Asian session for a second straight day, as the pair traded just above the 1.37 line. The pair is steady in the European session.

Current range: 1.37 to 1.3740.

Further levels in both directions:       EURUSD Daily Forecast May14th


  • Below: 1.37, 1.3650, 1.3560, 1.3515 and 1.3450
  • Above: 1.3740, 1.3785, 1.3830, 1.3865, 1.3905, 1.3964, 1.40, 1.4055 and 1.4105
  • 1.37 is providing weak support.  1.3650 follows.  
  • 1.3740 is the next resistance line. 1.3785 is a pivotal line.


EUR/USD Fundamentals

  • 6:00 German Final CPI. Exp. -0.2%. actual -0.2%.
  • 6:45  French CPI. Exp. 0.2%, actual 0.0%.
  • 9:00  Eurozone Industrial Production. Exp. -0.3%, actual -0.3%.
  • 12:30 US PPI. Estimate 0.2%.
  • 12:30 US Core CPI. Estimate 0.2%.
  • 14:30 Deutsche Bundesbank President Jens Weidmann Speaks.
  • 14:30 US Crude Oil Inventories. Exp. -0.4M.

*All times are GMT

For more events and lines, see the  Euro to dollar  forecast.


EUR/USD Sentiment

  • Eurozone manufacturing sputters: Eurozone manufacturing data continues to disappoint, as Eurozone Industrial Production softened and came in at -0.3%, its third decline in four readings. Of particular concern are weak figures from Germany, the Eurozone’s number one economy.  Last week, German  Industrial Production  came in at  -0.5%, well off the estimate of  +0.3%.  As well, German Factory Orders slipped 2.8%, its sharpest decline since October 2012. This was nowhere near the estimate of 0.3%. French Industrial Production also looked weak, posting a decline of -0.7%, short of the forecast of 0.3%.
  • German, Euro  Economic Sentiments slide:  German ZEW Economic Sentiment, a key indicator,  weakened badly in April, dropping to 33.1 points. This was well off the estimate of 41.3 and its worst showing since December 2012.  The  Eurozone release followed suit,  dropping to 55.2 points, compared to an estimate of 63.5 points. These  indicators  are based on a survey of institutional investors and analysts, and the weak numbers point to  increasing concern  about the Eurozone and German  economies.
  • Draghi says ECB poised to act: The euro dropped sharply last week, after comments from ECB head Mario Draghi that the ECB was  ready to take monetary action at its June meeting, depending on growth and inflation forecasts. These sentiments were reinforced this week by the influential German central bank, which said it would back monetary easing measures, such as negative deposit rates, in order to combat weak inflation levels. After months of little more than talk from the ECB, will we see some real action come June? As the next ECB meeting nears, Eurozone releases will be under the market microscope. The markets will also be paying close attention to  remarks later in the day  from the head of the German central bank, Jens  Weidmann.
  • US inflation numbers concern: Low inflation levels are not limited to the Eurozone. Weak inflation  has been a  persistent problem  in the US, and Fed chair Yellen highlighted this issue when speaking before Congress last week. PPI,  a key inflation indicator, will be released on Wednesday. The index improved to 0.5% last month, but the markets are bracing for a weak reading of just 0.2% for April. If this modest estimate is not met, the dollar could lose some ground.

More:  Is the Eurozone Crisis Really Over?

Kenny Fisher

Kenny Fisher

Kenny Fisher - Senior Writer A native of Toronto, Canada, Kenneth worked for seven years in the marketing and trading departments at Bendix, a foreign exchange company in Toronto. Kenneth is also a lawyer, and has extensive experience as an editor and writer.