EUR/USD is showing little movement, as the pair trades in the low-1.37 range in Wednesday’s European session. On the release front, Eurozone numbers were disappointing. Inflation numbers out of France and Germany weakened in April, and Eurozone Industrial Production posted another decline. Later in the day, the president of the German central bank, Jens Weidmann, will speak in Berlin. In the US, today’s major release is the Producer Price Index.
Here is a quick update on the technical situation, indicators, and market sentiment that moves euro/dollar.
- EUR/USD was very quiet in the Asian session for a second straight day, as the pair traded just above the 1.37 line. The pair is steady in the European session.
Current range: 1.37 to 1.3740.
- Below: 1.37, 1.3650, 1.3560, 1.3515 and 1.3450
- Above: 1.3740, 1.3785, 1.3830, 1.3865, 1.3905, 1.3964, 1.40, 1.4055 and 1.4105
- 1.37 is providing weak support. 1.3650 follows.
- 1.3740 is the next resistance line. 1.3785 is a pivotal line.
- 6:00 German Final CPI. Exp. -0.2%. actual -0.2%.
- 6:45 French CPI. Exp. 0.2%, actual 0.0%.
- 9:00 Eurozone Industrial Production. Exp. -0.3%, actual -0.3%.
- 12:30 US PPI. Estimate 0.2%.
- 12:30 US Core CPI. Estimate 0.2%.
- 14:30 Deutsche Bundesbank President Jens Weidmann Speaks.
- 14:30 US Crude Oil Inventories. Exp. -0.4M.
*All times are GMT
- Eurozone manufacturing sputters: Eurozone manufacturing data continues to disappoint, as Eurozone Industrial Production softened and came in at -0.3%, its third decline in four readings. Of particular concern are weak figures from Germany, the Eurozone’s number one economy. Last week, German Industrial Production came in at -0.5%, well off the estimate of +0.3%. As well, German Factory Orders slipped 2.8%, its sharpest decline since October 2012. This was nowhere near the estimate of 0.3%. French Industrial Production also looked weak, posting a decline of -0.7%, short of the forecast of 0.3%.
- German, Euro Economic Sentiments slide: German ZEW Economic Sentiment, a key indicator, weakened badly in April, dropping to 33.1 points. This was well off the estimate of 41.3 and its worst showing since December 2012. The Eurozone release followed suit, dropping to 55.2 points, compared to an estimate of 63.5 points. These indicators are based on a survey of institutional investors and analysts, and the weak numbers point to increasing concern about the Eurozone and German economies.
- Draghi says ECB poised to act: The euro dropped sharply last week, after comments from ECB head Mario Draghi that the ECB was ready to take monetary action at its June meeting, depending on growth and inflation forecasts. These sentiments were reinforced this week by the influential German central bank, which said it would back monetary easing measures, such as negative deposit rates, in order to combat weak inflation levels. After months of little more than talk from the ECB, will we see some real action come June? As the next ECB meeting nears, Eurozone releases will be under the market microscope. The markets will also be paying close attention to remarks later in the day from the head of the German central bank, Jens Weidmann.
- US inflation numbers concern: Low inflation levels are not limited to the Eurozone. Weak inflation has been a persistent problem in the US, and Fed chair Yellen highlighted this issue when speaking before Congress last week. PPI, a key inflation indicator, will be released on Wednesday. The index improved to 0.5% last month, but the markets are bracing for a weak reading of just 0.2% for April. If this modest estimate is not met, the dollar could lose some ground.