EUR/USD reached new highs but was unable to sustain the break amid a surprisingly eventful summer week. Where will the pair go next? Flash PMIs are the highlights this week. Here is an outlook for the highlights of this week and an updated technical analysis for EUR/USD. An agreement for a third Greek bailout seemed a done deal at first, but then Germany poured some cold water. On Friday, the Eurogroup finally approved the deal, so the topic may gradually fade out of the headlines. The Greek drama was overshadowed by the Chinese one with the devaluation of the yuan. The move by the authorities in the world’s no. 2 economy had an adverse effect on the dollar, with markets being unsure about a Fed hike following the move. This gave a boost to EUR/USD, but this didn’t spin out of control. In terms of data GDP figures disappointed in all three major countries. In addition, German economic sentiment fell short of expectations once again. In the US, the beat in retail sales provided the much needed relief after a few worries beforehand. [do action=”autoupdate” tag=”EURUSDUpdate”/]EUR/USD daily graph with support and resistance lines on it. Click to enlarge: Trade Balance: Monday, 9:00. The euro-zone enjoys a wide trade surplus based mostly on Germany’s export machine. After a smaller than expected figure of 21.2 billion in May, a slightly narrower one is on the cards now: 19.3 billion. German Bundesbank report: Monday, 10:00. The German central bank assesses the economy on a monthly basis and provides an outlook. It will be interesting to hear the thoughts after GDP fell short of expectations. Current Account: Wednesday, 8:00. Similar to the trade balance numbers, current account is also positive. The measure also takes into account money and services. After 18 billion in May, an increase is on the cards: 19.2 billion. German PPI: Thursday, 6:00. Producer prices eventually feed into consumer prices and impact the ECB. After a slide of 0.1% in June, a “no change” read is on the cards for July. German GfK Consumer Climate: Friday, 6:00. Consumers in the continent’s largest economy remain quite confident. This survey of 2000 consumers has been stable at 10.1 in July and could tick up in August to 10.2 points. Flash PMIs: Friday: France at 7:00, Germany at 7:30 and the whole euro-zone at 8:00. According to Markit, the French manufacturing sector was in a very mild contraction in July, with 49.6 points, just below the 50 point threshold separating growth and contraction. The services sector is doing better with 52 points. In Germany, the all important manufacturing sector stands at 51.8 points and services is at 53.8. figures are even more upbeat for the whole euro-zone (driven by Spain) at 52.4 and 54 for manufacturing and services respectfully. Consumer Confidence: Friday, 14:00. The official survey by Eurostat continues showing pessimism among euro-zone consumers, with a slip to -7 points in June. Even if we see an improvement in July, the number is unlikely to leave negative territory and remain at -7 points. * All times are GMT EUR/USD Technical Analysis Euro/dollar began the move with a slip from the highs but then shot higher. The break above 1.12 (mentioned last week) was short lived and remains a false break. Live chart of EUR/USD: [do action=”tradingviews” pair=”EURUSD” interval=”60″/]Technical lines from top to bottom: We begin from higher ground this time. The very round 1.15 level is of importance thanks to its psychological role. It is closely followed by 1.1460 that served as resistance earlier in the year. The historic line of 1.1373 (from November 2003) still has a role as resistance. 1.1290, which was a peak in April and support in February is significant resistance. 1.1215, which capped the pair both in June and in August is clear resistance. It is followed by a low seen in January of 1.1113 which is nearly 0.90 on USD/EUR. 1.1050 returns to the chart after serving as a stepping stone for the pair to rise to higher ground. 1.0950 is a pivotal line in the range. 1.0865 provided some support in late May and is weak support before a stronger line: 1.0810, which was the bottom in July also nicely coincides with the low seen in May and is strong support.. The next line is 1.0760, which was the low point in both July and August 2003. 1.0715 joins the chart after temporarily capping the pair in April 2015. 1.0660 worked nicely as support in April 2015. 1.0615, which worked in both directions during March 2015 and is better at support. Another minor line is 1.0550, for a role as support in the same period of time. The very round level of 1.05 served as support during 2003. The lowest level in over 12 years is 1.0462 and this makes it critical support. I am bearish on EUR/USD On one hand, the euro is becoming the currency of choice in times of trouble as we’ve clearly seen now with the yuan devaluation crisis. And trouble continues brewing in China as well as in Greece. On the other hand, monetary policy divergence still clearly points down: a September hike in the US seems more probable with stronger PPI and OK retail sales, while in the euro-zone we are still seeing a long road to a real recovery. QE is here to stay, as inflation shows and as the ECB telegraphs. After the rise in range, it could be back to reality for EUR/USD. In our latest podcast we discuss predictable currencies vs. unpredictable central banks. Follow us on Stitcher. If you are interested in a different way of trading currencies, check out the weekly binary options setups, including EUR/USD and more. Further reading: For a broad view of all the week’s major events worldwide, read the USD outlook. For the Japanese yen, read the USD/JPY forecast. For GBP/USD (cable), look into the British Pound forecast. For the Australian dollar (Aussie), check out the AUD to USD forecast. USD/CAD (loonie), check out the Canadian dollar forecast For the kiwi, see the NZDUSD forecast. Yohay Elam Yohay Elam Yohay Elam: Founder, Writer and Editor I have been into forex trading for over 5 years, and I share the experience that I have and the knowledge that I've accumulated. After taking a short course about forex. Like many forex traders, I've earned a significant share of my knowledge the hard way. Macroeconomics, the impact of news on the ever-moving currency markets and trading psychology have always fascinated me. Before founding Forex Crunch, I've worked as a programmer in various hi-tech companies. I have a B. Sc. in Computer Science from Ben Gurion University. Given this background, forex software has a relatively bigger share in the posts. Yohay's Google Profile View All Post By Yohay Elam EUR/USD ForecastMajors share Read Next NZD/USD Forecast August 17-21 Yohay Elam 7 years EUR/USD reached new highs but was unable to sustain the break amid a surprisingly eventful summer week. Where will the pair go next? Flash PMIs are the highlights this week. Here is an outlook for the highlights of this week and an updated technical analysis for EUR/USD. An agreement for a third Greek bailout seemed a done deal at first, but then Germany poured some cold water. On Friday, the Eurogroup finally approved the deal, so the topic may gradually fade out of the headlines. 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