EUR/USD Forecast Jan. 25-29

0

EUR/USD traded on safe haven flows and was pushed down on Draghi, albeit has not found a clear direction. Will it move out of range now? Fresh inflation figures and yet another appearance form the ECB President take center stage in the last week of January. Here is an outlook for the highlights of this week and an updated technical analysis for EUR/USD.

Draghi went dovish, noting downside risks from China, oil prices and more. Most importantly, he made it clear the ECB is ready to act to reach its inflation target by announcing more measures in March. This pushed EUR/USD lower within the range. Apart from that, PMIs generally missed expectations while German business confidence is slightly lower, but better than expected according to ZEW. Another German survey starts the week. In the US, data was mixed, but there is a growing notion that also the Fed will lean to the dovish side.

Updates:

EUR/USD daily graph with support and resistance lines on it. Click to enlarge:

EURUSD daily chart January 25 29 2015

  1. German Ifo Business Climate:Monday, 9:00. Germany’s No. 1 Think Tank showed stable business confidence in December, with a score of 108.7 points. A small slide to 108.5 is expected in this key survey in the continent’s largest economy.
  2. Belgian NBB Business Climate: Monday, 14:00. Despite coming from a small country, this wide survey his highly regarded. After a significant improvement to -1.4 points, a slide back down to -1.9 points is predicted. The negative number reflects pessimism.
  3. Draghi talks: Monday, 18:00. The president of the ECB will have another opportunity to influence the euro, now with more market reactions already in place. His speech in Frankfurt could emphasize the level of worry about inflation and also show his determination to act.
  4. German GfK Consumer Climate: Wednesday, 7:00. This consumer survey has already seen better days in mid 2015, when it began sliding. The 2200 strong survey is likely to slip from 9.4 to 9.3 points.
  5. German Import Prices: Thursday, 7:00. Prices of imports, notably energy, are on a losing streak. After a drop of 0.2% in November, a bigger fall of 1% is expected for December.
  6. Spanish Unemployment Rate: Thursday, 8:00. Spain is the continent’s fourth largest economy and continues suffering a devastating unemployment rate, despite some improvement. For Q4, the unemployment rate is predicted to tick up from 21.2% to 21.3%.
  7. German CPI:Thursday, states release data during the European morning with the all-German figure at 13:00. The miss on German inflation opened the door for a fall in euro-zone prices and for the ECB’s warnings. The preliminary numbers for January are expected to show a monthly drop of 0.8%, much more than 0.1% seen in December.
  8. French GDP: Friday, 6:30. The continent’s second largest economy enjoyed a relatively stronger growth rate of 0.3% in Q3,  and a slowdown is expected now, to 0.2%. While a weaker euro and the ECB’s easing help, growth is not spectacular, to say the least.
  9. German retail sales: Friday, 7:00. In the past few months, this indicator of consumer spending missed expectations. After a rise of 0.2 in November, an accelerated pace of 0.3% is predicted.
  10. French CPI: Friday, 7:45. Prices in France advanced by 0.2% in December, more than expected, but this didn’t change the overall picture for euro-zone inflation. Consumer spending will also be release, and here, a rebound with +0.8% is expected for December after a slide of 1.1% in November.
  11. Spanish CPI: Friday, 8:00.Deflation has been quite visible in Spain during 2015, but this time, in the preliminary figure for January 2016, a positive 0.1% is expected after no change in December.
  12. Spanish GDP: Thursday, 8:00. Partly in thanks to the depressed prices, real growth has been super strong in recent quarters with +0.8% in Q3. The same figure is on the cards for Q4 2015.
  13. Monetary data: Friday, 9:00. The ECb’s actions have resulted in an accelerated pace of money in circulation, with 5.1% y/y seen in November, a pace of 5.2% is on the cards for December. Private loans are also predicted to rise to a pace of 1.5% from 1.4% beforehand. They were in negative ground not that long ago.
  14. CPI: Friday, 10:00. Draghi warned that the inflation outlook has deteriorated and now, after the some data from other countries, we will receive the flash euro-zone data for January. Headline inflation is expected to rise from 0.2% to 0.4%, partly due to the removal of the base effects – the big fall in oil prices in early 2015. Core inflation is not expected to move from the annual pace of 0.9%.

* All times are GMT

EUR/USD Technical Analysis

Euro/dollar traded in range during most of the week, respecting the 1.10 level (mentioned last week).It then turned south, eventually ending the week on lower ground.

Technical lines from top to bottom:

1.13 worked as support back in October and is the high line at the moment. It is followed by the swing low of 1.1220 in September which is minor resistance now.

1.1140 cushioned the pair in October. 1.1050 is the high seen in December and the next challenge on the upside.

1.10 is a round number and significant resistance. 1.0925, which was a support line in December, is the next support line. 1.0850 was the level the pair bounce off at the dying moments of 2015.

The post-Draghi low 1.0780 replaces 1.08 as support.  1.0710 is the next support line on the chart after temporarily capping the pair in April 2015. 1.0630 worked as nice support in November 2015 and then switched to resistance.

It is the last line before plunging to 1.0530, that supported the pair in April. Below, the 12 year low of 1.0460 seen in March.

I turn from bearish to neutral on EUR/USD

After Draghi downed the euro, as expected, the Fed could follow with some dovishness of its own. This could weaken the dollar across the board, but perhaps less so, as the “risk on” mood could weaken the euro. In Europe, the data could likely weigh on the euro, especially inflation. This could sow the seeds for a fall in EUR/USD afterwards.

In our latest podcast we update from the currency war front

Follow us on Sticher or on iTunes

Get the 5 most predictable currency pairs

About Author

Yohay Elam – Founder, Writer and Editor I have been into forex trading for over 5 years, and I share the experience that I have and the knowledge that I’ve accumulated. After taking a short course about forex. Like many forex traders, I’ve earned the significant share of my knowledge the hard way. Macroeconomics, the impact of news on the ever-moving currency markets and trading psychology have always fascinated me. Before founding Forex Crunch, I’ve worked as a programmer in various hi-tech companies. I have a B. Sc. in Computer Science from Ben Gurion University. Given this background, forex software has a relatively bigger share in the posts.

Comments are closed.