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EUR/USD  rebounded strongly last week, gaining about 150 points.  The pair closed the week at 1.0982. There are 11 events this week, highlighted by German Ifo Business Climate. Here is an outlook for  the highlights of this week and an updated technical analysis for EUR/USD.

The euro posted strong gains as the Greek government won  a parliamentary vote on financial reforms which are required for the rescue package. US numbers showed improvement this week, as New Home Sales jumped and unemployment claims dropped sharply.

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EUR/USD daily graph  with support and resistance lines on it. Click to enlarge:

EUR_USD_Forecast.July27-31

  1. German Import Prices: Monday, 6:00. Import Prices declined for the first time in four months, as the indicator came in at -0.2%, short of the estimate of +0.2%. The forecast for the June report stands at +0.2%.
  2. German Ifo Business Climate: Monday, 8:00. Germany’s No. 1 think tank dipped in June, with business climate standing at 107.4 points. This was short of the forecast of 108.2 points. The 7000-strong survey is expected to remain steady in the July report, with an estimate of 107.6 points.
  3. M3 Money Supply: Monday, 8:00. The indicator slipped in May, with a reading of 5.0%. This was short of the forecast of 5.4%. Little change is expected in the June report.
  4. GfK German Consumer Climate: Wednesday, 6:00. This survey of 2000 consumers has been marching forward in recent months, and was steady in the June release, with a reading of 10.1 points. More of the same is expected in the July report.
  5. German CPI: Thursday, All Day. Inflation continues to struggle in the Eurozone’s largest economy, with a June reading of -0.1%. The markets are expecting an improvement in the July release, with a forecast of +0.2%.
  6. Spanish CPI: Thursday, 7:00. The euro-zone’s fourth largest economy is one of the countries that suffered most from deflation, but the situation has improved. The June reading posted a gain for the first time in a year,  coming  in at +0.1%. An  identical reading  is expected  in the July report.
  7. Spanish GDP: Thursday, 7:00. Despite weak conditions in the Eurozone, Spanish GDP has been steadily moving higher and improved to 0.9% in Q1. The upward trend is expected to continue, with an estimate of 1.1% for the Q2 release.
  8. German Unemployment Change: Thursday, 7:55.   Unemployment is falling in the continent’s largest economy, but the drops have been smaller in recent months. The May reading softened to -1K. However, better news is expected in the June reading, with a forecast of -5K.
  9. French Consumer Spending: Friday, 6:45.      Consumer spending has been  steady but unspectacular  in the continent’s second largest economy, with readings of +0.1% in three of the past four months. The markets are expecting a breakout in the June release, with a rosy estimate of 0.7%.
  10. Flash CPI: Friday, 9:00.  Headline inflation, which is the ECB’s target, stood at 0.2% y/y, matching the forecast.  Another gain of 0.2%  is expected in the July reading.
  11. Unemployment Rate: Friday, 9:00.  Contrary to German unemployment, the situation in the broader continent is not as encouraging. A level of 11.1% was recorded in the past two readings, within expectations. The June estimate stands at 11.0%.

* All times are GMT

EUR/USD Technical Analysis

EUR/USD opened at 1.0829 and dipped to a low of 1.0807. It was all uphill from there, as the pair shot  up to a  high of 110.18, as resistance held firm at 1.1050  (mentioned last week). The pair closed at 1.0982.

Live chart of EUR/USD: [do action=”tradingviews” pair=”EURUSD” interval=”60″/]

Technical lines from top to bottom:

The round level of 1.15 has a psychological impact and it also worked as support in the past. 1.1450 capped the pair during February’s  recovery attempts and also during May.  Next, the historic line of 1.1373 (from November 2003),which  still  has a role as resistance. 1.1290, which was a peak in April and support in February is significant resistance.

1.1190, just below the round number of 1.12, proved its strength as a double top in June 2015. It is followed by a low seen in  January  of 1.1113 which is nearly 0.90 on USD/EUR.

1.1050 returns to the chart after serving as a stepping stone for the pair to rise to higher ground. Also 1.0910 makes a comeback after being the low point in July so far.

1.0865 provided some support in late May and is weak support before a stronger line: 1.0815 which worked in both directions is the  low of May and important support.

The next line is  1.0760, which was the low point in both July and August 2003. 1.0715 joins the chart after temporarily capping the pair in April 2015.

1.0660 worked nicely as support in April 2015. 1.0615, which worked in both directions during March 2015 and is better at support.

Another minor line is 1.0550, for  a role as support in the same period of time.  The very round level of 1.05 served as support during 2003.  The lowest level in over 12 years is 1.0462 and this makes it critical support.

I  am  neutral  on  EUR/USD

The Greek deal appears to be holding, but many wounds were left open and they will be hard to heal. There are also lots of questions left, most importantly about debt restructuring which the IMF supports.  In addition, it is clear that the ECB continues hitting the QE pedal to the floor. In the US, the economy showed some strength last week, increasing speculation that the Fed will push the rate trigger, perhaps as early as September.

In our latest podcast, we drill down the deals, the aGreekment and Iran and the market impact.

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