EUR/USD Outlook – November 23-27

Looking for the latest outlook, for the current week? Check out the section: EUR/USD Forecast.

EUR/USD showed us what range trading is in the past week, moved also by Jean-Claude Trichet. He will speak again in the upcoming week, and there are plenty of other events in the Euroland. Here’s an outlook for the upcoming events that will impact the Euro, and an updated technical analysis for EUR/USD.

EUR/USD graph with support and resistance lines marked on it. Click to enlarge:

Apart from Jean-Claude Trichet, another event that stands out is the updated GDP, especially now that Europe is out of recession. Let’s see the 14 events awaiting us. Take a deep breath:

1. French Flash PMI: The influx of purchasing managers’ indices begin in France on Monday at 8:00 GMT. Flash Manufacturing PMI is expected to take a break from 8 straight month of rise, and edge down from 55.6 to 55.1 points, still expanding. Flash Services PMI is also predicted to take a break after the big jump last month to 57.8 points but remain high at 57.3 points, being under 50 for the third month in a row.
2. German Flash PMI: In Europe’s largest economy, Manufacturing PMI managed to rise above 50 only last month. This time, it’s expected to advance from 51 to 51.7, showing that the German industry is strong. The Services PMI in Germany is already above the 50 point mark for three months, but isn’t rising all the time. It’s predicted to edge up from 50.9 o 51.2 this time. Published on Monday at 8:30 GMT.
3. European Flash PMI: Purchasing managers have become optimistic, expecting economic expansion only last month. This month’s figure is expected to stand at 51.5, 0.8 points more that last month. The services sector is doing better, with 52.6 points last month, and an expected rise to 52.7 now. Published on Monday at 9:00 GMT.
4. Jean-Claude Trichet talks: The president of the European Central Bank has moved the EUR/USD in many occasions. Recently he has advocated a strong dollar. He’ll be speaking in Madrid on Monday at 13:00 GMT.
5. German Final GDP: The initial release for the third quarter has shown that the German economy grew by 0.7%. This is expected to be confirmed at the final release on Tuesday at 7:00 GMT. In the initial release, we’ve seen that  the  whole continent is out of recession, but this was expected, and the Euro didn’t enjoy it too much.
6. French Consumer Spending: Europe’s second largest economy’s consumers have made in a big leap in spending last month – 2.3%. This was after two months of downfall. This time, spending is expected to rise at a mild pace of 0.6%. Published on Tuesday at 7:50 GMT.
7. German Ifo Business Climate:  The German “Information and Forschung” institute runs a highly regarded survey that polls 700 business for their sentiment towards the economic conditions. This figure has been rising during the year, and is now expected to rise from 91.9 to 92.6. Published on Tuesday at 9:00 GMT.
8. Industrial New Orders: Germany’s factories are doing well, and this is pulling the whole continent forward. Industrial New Orders in Europe has posted excellent rises in the past three months, with a 2% rise last month, surprising economists each time. A softer rise is predicted this time – 0.7%. Published on Wednesday at 10:00 GMT.
9. Belgium NBB Business Climate: Despite coming from a very small country, the National Bank of Belgium has influence on the Euro through this survey. The figure has been negative, expressing concern from the 6,00 businesses polled in this survey. But the number has been improving, reaching -14.2 last month, the highest in 14 months. It’s predicted to rise to -11.3 points this month. Published on Tuesday at 14:00 GMT. American  Consumer Confidence sent the Euro way down a few weeks ago.
10. GfK German Consumer Climate: This survey comes from the biggest economy – Germany. 2000 consumers are asked about future economic conditions. LAst month, this number disappointed by dropping from 4.3 to 4 points. It’s predicted to be on the rise again, jumping to 4.5 points. Published on Wednesday at 7:00 GMT.
11. German Prelim CPI: Deflation is weighing on the Euro for quite some time. German prices are around zero for quite some time. After a rise of 0.1% last month, they are expected to be flat this time. The figure is a composite number based on the 16 German states. It will be published during Thursday.
12. M3 Money Supply: Growth in the amount of money has been slowing down, month after month, disappointing economists each time. Last month’s figure has been the lowest in a very long time – 1.8%. A 0.7% is predicted this time. No new money means no inflation and no rate hikes -bad for the Euro. Published on Thursday at 9:00 GMT.
13. German Import Prices: Another inflation related figure will be released on Friday at 7:00 GMT. Import prices also impact consumer prices. After a big drop of 0.9% last month, prices of imported goods are predicted to rise by 0.5% this time.
14. Consumer Confidence: Last but not least, Eurostat publishes this survey of 2300 consumers. It has been rising very slowly and staying negative in recent months, moving up to -18 – light pessimism. It’s predicted to remain at this level. Published on Friday at 10:00 GMT.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis

The Euro began the week higher, reaching 1.5015, and then fell down, and up again, etc. – perfect range trading. It finally closed at 1.4859, in the lower area of the range.

I’ve modified some of the lines from last week’s EUR/USD outlook. The first and most important lines are the range line – 1.48 from below and 1.5050 from above. Looking up, 1.5280 was the support line when the Euro traded high during the summer of 2008.

Looking down, I marked 1.4626 as a minor resistance line, since it was a swing that the Euro made not so long ago. Below that, 1.4444 is a minor support line, serving as a resistance line not so long ago.

For more technical analyses about this pair, I recommend reading the following articles on the web:

• Casey Stubbs shows where the Euro has strong support.
• Mohammed Isah shows that the long term uptrend continues to provide support.
• The Geek Who Knows provides his weekly outlook for the pair.

I’m neutral on the pair, now that the EUR/USD trading is dominated by a range.

The longer the range trading – the bigger chance for a downfall.

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Further reading:

• For a broad view of all the week’s major event in all currencies, read the  forex weekly outlook.
• For the Euro, read the  EUR USD Forecast.
• For GBP/USD, look into the  British Pound forecast.
• For the Australian dollar, read the  AUD/USD forecast.
• For USD/CAD, check out the  Canadian dollar forecast.

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