EUR/USD is trading at 1.08037 in the morning after Macron topped the first round of the French elections. The mainstream candidate is expected to beat extreme-right Le Pen in the second round by a wide margin.
Opinion polls for the second round have already been released and they project Macron to win 60% of the vote. More polls are expected today. The polls in France have been remarkably accurate.
The initial reaction was a leap in EUR/USD, which reached a 5-month high and traded around 1.0930 at one point. We are now some 100 pips below those highs, but still over 100 pips above the close on Friday.
The weekend gap is far from being closed, but we are seeing a “sell the fact” response. A Macron-Le Pen run-off was the baseline scenario. It was not fully priced in, but also provided the least room for surprise.
At current levels, support awaits the pair at 1.0830, which was a high seen in December. A further cushion is at 1.0775 and 1.0720. Resistance remains at the previous 2017 high of 1.0905.
The pair continues trading in an uptrend channel. Since the beginning of the year, EUR/USD has set higher lows and with this weekend gap, also higher highs.
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