Votes are being counted in France and they show extreme-right candidate Le Pen is leading with over 25%, with Macron behind with 21%. This is the opposite of the exit polls, which put Macron on top. Update:
Update: after counting 20 million votes, Le Pen still leads but the gap is smaller: 24.4% against Macron with 22.2%. Fillon is third with 19.6%, so this cements the run-off between Macron and Le Pen.
EUR/USD levels to watch after the favorable first French round
However, this is mostly based on polls that have closed earlier, mostly in rural areas. Macron has more support among voters in cities, especially among younger urbanites.
In any case, this still leaves the two candidates in the second round. The run-off awaits us on May 7th. There, opinion polls have consistently show Macron beating Le Pen by of around 28%, 64% to 36% according to the latest polls.
Initial trading in EUR/USD sends EUR/USD some 200 higher around 1.0929. The pair closed at 1.0724 on Friday. Even earlier trading already sent euro/dollar above 1.09 on the publication of the exit polls. This is a 5 month high and the highest level for 2017.
See how to trade the elections with EUR/USD
In the meantime, both mainstream candidates conceded defeat and called the French to vote for centrist Emmanuel Macron. Socialist Hamon and center-right Fillon seemed disappointed but had hard criticism against Le Pen. According to exit polls,
Extreme-left candidate Melenchon stands out by not conceding defeat. Is he awaiting the urbanites as well? Melenchon calls for constraints on vote estimates.
Fillon and Melenchon received 19.5%. Hamon got only 6%. These exit polls were preceded by early reports in the Belgian press also showing similar numbers.
more coming
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