EUR/USD has edged lower on Tuesday, as the pair trades in the mid-1.36 range in the European session. In economic news, German Import Prices looked weak, coming in at a flat 0.0% in December. As well, EU financial ministers will get together for their monthly meeting. In the US, there are two key events – Core Durable Goods Orders and CB Consumer Confidence.
Here is a quick update on the technical situation, indicators, and market sentiment that moves euro/dollar.
- EUR/USD was steady in the Asian session, hovering close to the 1.3670 line. The pair has lost ground early in the European session.
Current range: 1.3580 to 1.3650.
- Below: 1.3580, 1.3515, 1.3450, 1.34, 1.3320, 1.3240, 1.3175 and 1.31.
- Above: 1.3650, 1.37, 1.3800, 1.3832 and 1.3940.
- 1.3580 is the next support level. 1.3515 is stronger.
- 1.3650 is weak resistance. The round number of 1.37 follows.
- 7:00 German Import Prices. exp. 0.3%, actual 0.0%.
- All Day – ECOFIN Meetings.
- 13:30 US Core Durable Goods Orders. exp. 0.7%.
- 13:30 US Durable Goods Orders. exp. 1.9%.
- 14:00 US S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI. exp. 13.7%.
- 15:00 US CB Consumer Confidence. exp. 78.3 points.
- 15:00 US Richmond Manufacturing Index. exp. 13 points.
*All times are GMT
For more events and lines, see the Euro to dollar forecast.
- German Business Confidence Improves: The week started on the right foot for Eurozone data, as German Ifo Business Climate, a key event, continues to improve. The indicator topped the 110 level, posting a reading of 110.6 points, up from 109.5 last month. This edged above the estimate of 110.2 points. Germany is the Eurozone’s largest economy, and the region will need the German locomotive to lead the way to an economic recovery.
- US Housing Numbers Slide: The US housing sector is showing some weakness. New Home Sales dropped sharply in December to 414 thousand, down from 464 thousand a month earlier. This was nowhere near the estimate of 457 thousand. This follows a disappointing Existing Home Sales release last week. The key indicator dropped to 4.87 million, down from 4.90 million a month earlier and shy of the estimate of the 4.94 million. This was the indicator’s fourth straight drop. The markets will be hoping for better news from Pending Home Sales on Thursday. A third straight housing reading below the estimate could weigh on the dollar.
- Worries about China: Jitters in Chinese money markets, as well as comments about a “severe economic situation” in the world’s No. 2 economy are worrying markets. While the impact is currently limited to commodity currencies, lower Chinese demand for German products could change the European picture one day.
- IMF warns about deflation in Eurozone: Eurozone inflation indicators continue to point to weak inflation, and the situation as deteriorated to such an extent that the IMF has voiced its concern about the danger of deflation in Europe. This was seen in a report published by the organization as well as in a speech by IMF Managing Director Christine Lagarde in Davos. While the ECB seems concerned with low inflation and not outright deflation, any further deterioration could push the ECB to set a negative deposit rate as soon as March 2014. This is a primary source of euro vulnerability.