EUR/USD began the new trading week with a move higher within the range. It peaked just below 1.3640 as tension prevents a real break in either direction. ECB president Mario Draghi will dominate the scene later on in an official testimony. Will he attempt to talk down the euro?
Here is a quick update on what’s moving the pair.
- EUR/USD moved remained steady in Asia, making the move only in the European session..
- Current range: 1.3610 to 1.3650.
Further levels in both directions:
- Below: 1.3610, 1.3585, 1.3550, 1.35, 1.3450, and 1.34.
- Above: , 1.3650, 1.3677, 1.37 and 1.3740.
- On the downside, 1.3585 is more important than 1.3610.
- 1.3650 remains key resistance.
- 9:00 Euro-zone industrial output. Exp. +0.3%, actual -1.1%.
- 17:00 ECB president Mario Draghi testifies.
*All times are GMT.
- A Draghi drag? The president of the ECB maintained a dovish tone in his most recent press conference. With the next meeting awaiting only in early August, Draghi is free to release comments in his testimony in front of the European parliament. He will be asked about the AQR, TLTRO and other topics, but what interests the markets are his intentions about Euro-zone QE, something that can weigh on the euro.
- Will Yellen acknowledge the recovery?: The Federal Reserve minutes did not shed much light on when the Fed plans to raise interest rates, but policymakers did agree to wind up the QE scheme by October. In addition, James Bullard had his “Carney moment” saying that rates could rise sooner than investors think. Together with an influential article in the WSJ, it seems that the Fed is getting closer to acknowledging the improvement in the US economy. We will hear tomorrow from Janet Yellen.
- Worries from Portugal: A major shareholder of a Portuguese bank missed a bond payments. This was a stark reminder that the underlying problems in Europe are far from being resolved. Stock markets fell and the euro also felt the heat, albeit in a limited manner.
- Euro-zone numbers are worrying: After finally receiving some positive news out of Germany with a positive trade balance, fresh numbers remain weak: industrial output dropped more than expected in the euro-zone and joined a long list of disappointing data from both Germany and the euro-zone as a whole.
- US job numbers keep rolling: US employment numbers continue to improve. On Tuesday, JOLTS Job Openings jumped to 4.64 million, easily beating the estimate of 4.53 million. This follows excellent figures from Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate. The jobless claims also dropped to 304K, at the bottom of the range.